Good Afternoon. Holiday spending just logged a record 202.9 million shoppers, gas prices slipped under $3 for the first time in four years, and Bitcoin is doing its best impersonation of a trampoline. Let’s get into it.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Stocks Rebound as Bitcoin Pops Back Above $90K

The News: Markets shook off Monday’s risk-asset rout, with the Nasdaq up more than 0.5% and Bitcoin clawing back above $90,000 after its sharpest two-day slide since spring. Bond markets remained the real tension point: Japan’s 30-year yield hit a record intraday high after Monday’s hawkish Bank of Japan comments, before easing following a solid debt auction. U.S. 10-year yields ticked slightly lower to around 4.087%. Meanwhile, South Korean automakers ripped higher, Hyundai and Kia up more than 4%, after Washington confirmed Trump-era tariffs on Korean autos will drop from 25% to 15%, retroactive to early November.

Why It Matters: A fragile market just showed it’s still willing to buy dips but only selectively, and only when yields cooperate. The BOJ is the wildcard here: yen normalization threatens global carry trades, and that can turn mild volatility into something much sharper, much faster.

What to Watch: Whether Bitcoin’s bounce is a true pivot or just a dead-cat repricing in a thin market. Plus: the OECD’s new outlook warning 2026 will bring slower growth worldwide as tariffs bite, a policy shock that markets may not be fully pricing in.
Source: wsj.com

2. Holiday Shopping Surges to Record 202.9 Million Shoppers

The News: A record 202.9 million Americans shopped between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, the highest since the National Retail Federation began tracking the five-day period in 2017 and well above last year’s 197 million. Both in-store and online traffic jumped, with 134.9 million digital shoppers (+9% YoY) and 129.5 million in stores (+3% YoY). Adobe pegged total online spending at $44.2 billion, up 7.7%, including a $14.25 billion Cyber Monday.

Why It Matters: The consumer is supposed to be tapped out and yet holiday shopping continues to behave like a sacred budget line item. Even with weak sentiment and rising layoffs, shoppers came out for discounts, free-shipping offers and “buy now, panic later” energy. The NRF expects holiday spending to top $1 trillion for the first time, suggesting that while households are cutting travel, entertainment, and extras, they’re still not cutting Christmas.

What to Watch: Whether this early-season surge pulls demand forward or signals a genuinely strong December. The NRF says shoppers still have 53% of their buying left, which sounds bullish unless this was the big rush and wallets close again. Also keep an eye on whether labor-constrained retailers can handle elevated foot traffic without the usual army of seasonal hires. Nothing kills holiday spirit like a 40-minute checkout line.
Source: cnbc.com

3. U.S. Gas Prices Drop Below $3. Trump Says $2 Gas Is “Within Reach”

The News: The national average for regular gasoline fell to $2.99 on Monday — the first time Americans have seen sub-$3 gas since May 2021, per AAA. Energy Secretary Chris Wright credited the drop to policy shifts under President Trump, arguing the administration is prioritizing supply, domestic production, and consumer wallets. Trump went further Tuesday, saying $2 gas is achievable, even as the U.S. replenishes the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Prices range widely by state:

$2.40–$2.67: TX, LA, AR, OK, CO, IA, WI, KY, TN, AL, MS

$3.20–$4.54: CA, WA, OR, NV, AZ, ID, AK, HI, PA

Why It Matters: Sub-$3 gas is one of the clearest forms of economic relief for households — a “real-time tax cut” that shows up every week. At a moment when shoppers are stretching budgets and inflation fatigue is still palpable, cheaper fuel directly frees up cash for groceries, gifts, and bills. Politically, $3 gas is a messaging gift; $2 gas, if achieved, would be the economic equivalent of fireworks.

What to Watch: How quickly falling pump prices filter into core inflation and consumer sentiment, two areas that have stubbornly lagged recently. Also: whether the supply gains continue if oil dips too far — at some point drillers pull back. And of course, keep an eye on that $2-gas promise. If the administration pulls it off, expect an election-year victory lap.
Source: foxbusiness.com

4. Fed Ends QT With a $13.5B Liquidity Jolt

The News: The Federal Reserve officially ended Quantitative Tightening on Dec. 1, closing a two-year chapter in which it drained roughly $2.4 trillion from the financial system. But the bigger headline for markets came from a surprise move: a $13.5 billion repo injection into banks — the second-largest single-day liquidity operation since the pandemic and larger than anything seen during the Dot-Com era. The operation signals elevated funding stress in short-term markets… and, historically, these liquidity boosts have acted like rocket fuel for risk assets.

Why It Matters: We’ve entered a classic macro tug-of-war: Fed liquidity is turning on, BOJ liquidity may turn off and riskier assets like Crypto are still dealing with thin liquidity and true-believer volatility. This is the macro equivalent of pressing the gas and brake at the same time. Whichever central bank blinks first may decide the next major leg for Bitcoin.

What to Watch: The December FOMC meeting: if Powell signals cuts + ongoing liquidity injections, crypto will hear a starter pistol. But if the BOJ hikes days before, it could suppress any Fed-induced optimism.
Source: finance.yahoo.com

5. Redfin’s 2026 Predictions: The Great Housing Reset (Top 5)

The News: Redfin says 2026 marks the opening act of a slow, multi-year housing reset, not a crash, not a boom, but the first real easing of affordability pressures in more than a decade.

Here are the top predictions:

1. Mortgage Rates Drift to the Low-6s: Redfin expects the 30-year rate to average 6.3% — better than 2025’s 6.6%, but nowhere near pandemic lows. Enough relief to thaw demand… not enough to unfreeze the whole market.

2. Housing Becomes Slightly More Affordable: For the first time since the Great Recession, wages grow faster than home prices. Redfin sees home prices rising just 1%. A breakthrough, but not a fix.

3. Home Sales Tick Up 3%: Existing-home sales hit 4.2M, driven by lower rates and improved affordability. Still historically weak but finally moving in the right direction.

4. Rents Rise Again as Apartment Supply Shrinks: With fewer new units coming online and more people stuck renting, Redfin expects 2%–3% rent growth, roughly inflation-level.

5. Housing Shapes New Lifestyles & High costs push Americans toward: More multigenerational living, More roommates pooling resources, More people renovating instead of moving, Fewer births (trend continues)

Why It Matters: Housing is the economy’s pressure valve — when people buy homes, they also buy appliances, furniture, renovations, cars, paint, landscaping, and everything in between. A single move triggers hundreds of micro-transactions and supports millions of jobs.

What to Watch: Whether the “Great Housing Reset” actually shows up and if affordability improves faster than expected, 2026 might surprise on the upside. If not? We’re in for another year of Zillow therapy.
Source: redfin.com

1. Germany’s Industrial Base Hits “Free Fall,” Business Leaders Warn

The News: Germany’s top industry group (BDI) says the country’s manufacturing base is in its worst condition since WWII, warning that industrial output will fall 2% in 2025 — the fourth straight year of decline — even as EU and global production bounce back. The culprit: sky-high energy costs after Germany shut down nuclear and much of its fossil capacity, leaving factories exposed to volatile wind/solar power. Industrial output is now 5.4% below 2021 levels, while the EU is up 1%.

Why It Matters: Germany is the industrial engine of Europe. A structural downturn there risks dragging down the entire EU supply chain and accelerating the shift of heavy manufacturing to the U.S. and Asia.

What to Watch: Whether Berlin sticks to its current energy policy or is forced into an awkward rethink as more factories vote with their feet.
Source: brusselssignal.eu

2. Putin to Europe: “If You Want War, We’ll End It Quickly”

The News: At Moscow’s Russia Calling! forum, Vladimir Putin issued one of his starkest warnings yet to European governments, saying that if Europe “starts a war with Russia,” the conflict would end so decisively that there would be “no one left to negotiate with.” Putin insisted Russia doesn’t seek war with Europe, but claimed that a direct confrontation would not resemble what he called the “surgical” campaign in Ukraine, now entering its fourth year and the deadliest European conflict since WWII.

Why It Matters: Markets tend to shrug off geopolitical posturing — until they don’t. Putin’s comments raise tail-risk anxiety around NATO spillover, energy infrastructure, and European defense spending heading into 2026.

What to Watch: Whether Europe responds with escalation, restraint, or… strategic silence. Given recent budget politics, the EU has limited appetite for a new front, even rhetorically.
Source: reuters.com

3. Apple Pushes Back on India’s Order to Preinstall Gov’t Security App

The News: Apple is preparing to defy a confidential Indian government mandate requiring all smartphone makers to preinstall Sanchar Saathi, a government-run security and anti-fraud app, on every new device within 90 days and to push it onto existing phones via software updates. The order also states the app cannot be disabled, a condition Apple says it does not accept anywhere in the world, citing privacy and system-integrity concerns, according to sources who spoke with Reuters. Other manufacturers — Samsung, Xiaomi, and more — are still “reviewing” the directive, but Apple appears ready to draw a bright line.

Why It Matters: This isn’t just another tech-regulation story, it’s a direct collision between the world’s most privacy-focused phone maker and the world’s fastest-growing major smartphone market. And it arrives at a moment when Apple is already facing a multibillion-dollar antitrust case in India. This sets up the kind of showdown that global regulators typically watch closely… and sometimes imitate.

What to Watch: Whether New Delhi backs off its own order after the political firestorm or doubles down. If Apple blinks, it risks weakening its global privacy stance. If India blinks, it risks looking selective on security. If neither blinks, grab popcorn.
Source: reuters.com

Q: What’s a skeleton’s favorite instrument?

A: The trom-bone.

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