🕟 Retail therapy

Good Afternoon. On October 15, 1997, Cassini-Huygens launched from Cape Canaveral toward Saturn. Getting there took nearly seven years and gravity assists from other planets. Even a powerful launch needed help along the way.

Today’s retail-sales report has its own extra push: gasoline spending. We’ll look at what shoppers bought beyond the pump, why dealmakers are buying businesses, and how much of the chip boom is reaching TSMC’s bottom line.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

🔢 Big number: 199,000 — New U.S. unemployment-benefit applications last week. The small increase leaves claims below 200,000, a sign that layoffs remain limited even though the report doesn’t tell us how easy it is to find a new job.

September’s shopping total got a boost from the gas station. U.S. retail and food-services sales rose 0.8% from August to $745 billion, according to the Census Bureau. Sales were 6.3% above a year earlier. Those are dollar totals, adjusted for seasonal patterns but not for price changes.

The news: Spending at gas stations rose 6.4% during the month. Outside those stations, sales increased just 0.2%, according to the Associated Press’s breakdown of the report. There were gains elsewhere: furniture sales rose 1.3%, and restaurant spending increased 1.1%. The Census Bureau also revised August’s overall sales increase upward to 1.3%, from the previously reported 1.1%. September therefore followed a stronger month than the original estimate suggested.

What’s next: Watch how much of the next gain comes from purchases beyond fuel. More dollars at the pump can lift the national sales total without leaving households more room for other shopping. Retailers’ earnings will add another useful view: whether the extra revenue came from more items sold, higher prices, or a mix of both. Today’s release establishes continued spending growth, with a much smaller increase outside gas stations.

Source: Census Bureau

The latest unemployment-benefit count offers a reassuring signal about job retention. Initial U.S. claims rose by 1,000 to 199,000 in the week ended October 10. That’s a small weekly move, and the total remains below 200,000. It measures new applications for aid rather than the number of people hired.

The news: The Labor Department revised the previous week’s count upward to 198,000, from 197,000. The four-week average, which reduces the influence of one unusual week, rose by 250 to 198,500. Continuing claims moved the other way: the number receiving insured unemployment benefits fell by 4,000 to 1.71 million in the week ended October 3. That continuing-benefits measure covers an earlier week, so the two figures shouldn’t be treated as simultaneous head counts.

Big picture: Low initial claims suggest employers aren’t dismissing workers in large numbers. They don’t establish that businesses are recruiting aggressively, or that someone between jobs can find work quickly. Keeping those questions separate helps explain why a stable national layoff count can coexist with a difficult job search. The next hiring and payroll reports will help fill in the part this weekly release can’t show.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor

CCC Intelligent Solutions has agreed to go private in a transaction valued at about $6.1 billion, including debt. A consortium led by GTCR and including Elliott Investment Management will pay shareholders $7.75 a share in cash. CCC supplies software connecting businesses across the automotive insurance and repair process.

The news: The company describes the price as a 44% premium to its closing share price on July 9, the last trading day before speculation about a possible sale. That comparison is to an earlier, unaffected price, rather than yesterday’s close. CCC says its network connects more than 35,000 businesses. The buyers want to keep developing its AI capabilities and expand the network and products that support insurance claims and vehicle repairs.

Bottom line: The board has approved the agreement, but the acquisition still needs shareholder approval and required regulatory clearances. Closing is expected in the first quarter of 2027, subject to those conditions; until then, CCC remains independent and publicly traded. The cash price defines the proposed shareholder payment. The buyers’ plans for faster product development describe what they hope to do with the business after they own it.

Source: CCC Intelligent Solutions

Intuit has agreed to acquire Sequence, a revenue-management company that helps businesses price, bill and collect for their services. Financial terms weren’t disclosed. The deal targets a practical back-office problem: a signed customer contract doesn’t automatically turn into an accurate invoice or money in the bank.

The news: Sequence replaces spreadsheets and manual billing workflows with software covering the process from quoting a price through revenue recognition. It can handle charges tied to usage, consumption, seats or milestones. Intuit plans to bring those capabilities to its mid-market offerings, including Intuit Enterprise Suite and QuickBooks Online Advanced. Software and professional-services businesses are among the industries it wants to serve, alongside the accounting firms that advise them.

What’s next: Intuit says it will continue supporting Sequence’s customers and develop an integrated offering in the coming months after the acquisition closes. The useful test will be how much manual work the combined products remove. Usage-based pricing can change a bill each month, and milestone contracts can spread collections across a project. Bringing that information together could help finance teams spend less time reconciling separate records and more time following overdue payments.

Source: Intuit

Labcorp has agreed to acquire selected BioReference Health assets from OPKO Health for $722 million in cash at closing, plus a possible earnout. The purchase includes clinical and women’s health testing, urology, corrections testing and certain operating assets. More than 80 patient-service centers would join Labcorp’s network.

The news: The closing price can move up or down based on the acquired business’s revenue at closing. An additional payment of up to $150 million depends on revenue from the 4Kscore Test, which helps assess the likelihood of aggressive prostate cancer before a biopsy. Labcorp expects about $250 million of business revenue in the first year after closing, based on its current forecasts. That’s an expectation for the acquired operations, not revenue already earned by Labcorp.

Big picture: The deal combines a testing menu and locations with Labcorp’s larger distribution network. OPKO says selling the assets will let it concentrate resources on its biopharmaceutical business. Regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions still apply, and the businesses will operate independently until closing. The headline maximum payment includes an earnout that must be achieved; treating the full amount as guaranteed would overstate the agreed upfront cash commitment.

Source: OPKO Health

TSMC’s third-quarter results show the earnings behind the chip industry’s growth. Net income rose 68.7% from a year earlier to NT$763.06 billion. Revenue reached NT$1.49 trillion, or US$46.72 billion. The company’s U.S.-dollar sales increased 41.2% from a year earlier, while sales measured in Taiwan dollars grew faster.

The news: Different currencies produce different growth rates, so the two revenue comparisons aren’t interchangeable. Profit also grew 8% from the previous quarter. TSMC reported a 66.4% gross margin and a 58.7% operating margin. Both margins were higher than a year earlier but lower than in the second quarter. Chips made with its newest 2-nanometer process accounted for 8% of wafer revenue; 3-nanometer chips contributed 33%.

Bottom line: More sales are producing substantially more profit, even as sequential margins ease. That combination is more informative than judging the quarter by growth alone. The mix of manufacturing processes shows how newer technology is contributing to revenue, while margins show what remains after production and operating costs. Follow both as the company adds capacity: a larger manufacturing business can grow earnings even when each revenue dollar carries a slightly smaller margin.

Source: TSMC

India sold more goods abroad in September, but imports still exceeded exports by $30.21 billion. Merchandise exports reached $44.40 billion, compared with $36.08 billion a year earlier. Imports were $74.61 billion, up from $69.08 billion. The trade gap describes goods crossing borders, rather than the country’s entire overseas income and spending.

The news: Electronics, petroleum products, chemicals and engineering goods were among the export-growth drivers in the Commerce Ministry’s release. Electronics exports rose to $5.31 billion, from $3.11 billion a year earlier. Services change the overall balance: the government estimates that combined goods and services exports were $80.75 billion, against $94.05 billion of imports. September’s services figures are estimates because the latest central-bank services data cover August.

What’s next: Watch the updated services numbers alongside the goods figures. A country can run a large merchandise deficit while service exports offset part of it. Over April through September, India’s goods deficit widened to $177.64 billion, from $156.88 billion a year earlier. That longer comparison adds perspective to a single month and shows why growing exports alone don’t establish that the overall trade position is improving.

Source: India’s Commerce Ministry

Euro-area industrial production fell 0.5% in August from July, following a revised 0.3% decline the previous month. Output was 1.1% below its level a year earlier. The wider European Union also recorded a monthly decline, though its 0.3% drop was smaller than the euro area’s.

The news: Weakness was uneven across products. Euro-area output of non-durable consumer goods fell 2.7%, while intermediate goods declined 0.8% and energy production slipped 0.6%. Capital goods increased 0.4%, and durable consumer goods edged up 0.2%. The country figures varied, too: Belgium and Ireland recorded large monthly declines, while Sweden and the Netherlands posted gains. An aggregate decline therefore doesn’t mean every country or factory is moving in the same direction.

Big picture: This index measures the volume of industrial production, excluding construction, with adjustments for calendar and seasonal effects. That makes it a different kind of signal from a sales total that can rise with prices. July’s euro-area result was also revised down from an initial 0.1% decline. Taken together, the new month and the revision leave a weaker industrial picture heading into the next release on November 16.

Source: Eurostat

Q: Why did the gym close down?

A: It just didn’t work out.

Money illusion: The tendency to judge income or wealth by its dollar amount without considering how inflation changes what that money can buy.

In a sentence: A raise can feel like progress, but money illusion hides a loss of buying power when prices rise faster.

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