Good Afternoon. It is a "Let’s see how the data lands" kind of Wednesday. Target and Lowe's both posted Q1 beats this morning, but shares went in opposite directions -- Lowe's gained on a clean retail story, while Target gave back nearly 5% as investors picked apart cautious Q2 commentary. Stocks were mostly up ahead of the two real events: the FOMC's April 28-29 minutes, and Nvidia's first-quarter results after the close.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

The News: Target reported first-quarter net sales of $25.4 billion, up 6.7% year-over-year, with comparable sales up 5.6% and adjusted EPS of $1.71 -- a 25-cent beat against the $1.46 consensus. The company raised its full-year sales outlook to a range centered on 4% growth and now expects EPS at the high end of $7.50-$8.50. Shares declined nearly 5% in early trade.

Why It Matters: A 4.4% traffic gain and growth across all six merchandise categories is the strongest Target quarter in years. But the CFO flagged "tougher comparisons in Q2" and "ongoing cost headwinds in the first half." For investors, this is the classic "sell the news" reaction -- the stock was up 18% into earnings. For consumers, the report suggests baby, wellness, food, and toys all saw double-digit growth, meaning the discretionary consumer is still showing up where Target has invested.

What to Watch: Whether Target's pricing on essentials holds through Q2. Tariff pass-through is the binding question for second-half guidance.

Source: MarketBeat

The News: Lowe's reported first-quarter sales of $23.1 billion, a 10.3% increase, with comparable sales rising 0.6% and adjusted EPS of $3.03 -- a 7-cent beat against the $2.96 consensus. Online sales gained 15.5%, and the company affirmed its full-year outlook for $92-$94 billion in sales and adjusted EPS of $12.25-$12.75.

Why It Matters: The 0.6% comp matches Home Depot's reading yesterday, but Lowe's separated itself on two fronts: pro-customer growth and online execution. For investors, the message is that the home-improvement duopoly is splitting along strategic lines rather than weather. For consumers, both reports together confirm spring has been more about smaller projects -- lawn and garden, paint -- than big remodels.

What to Watch: Whether Lowe's AI initiatives, including the Mylow shopping agent the company said triples conversion rates, can offset Q2 cost pressure.

Source: MarketBeat

The News: The Federal Reserve will release minutes from the April 28-29 FOMC meeting today. The meeting held the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75%, with a 5-4 vote effectively against an easing bias. Three voting members (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) preferred no easing language; one (Miran) wanted a 25 bps cut. These are also the last meeting minutes that fully capture deliberations under outgoing Chair Powell -- Kevin Warsh takes over at the June meeting.

Why It Matters: Investors are reading these minutes for two things: how serious the Middle East energy-shock concern was inside the committee, and how much room the doves carved out for a fall cut. For investors, hawkish-leaning minutes likely keep the 30-year above 5%. For Fed-watchers, this is also the swan song of the Powell-era communications style.

What to Watch: The dissent count and the staff outlook commentary. If the staff revised down GDP for the second half, that re-opens the rate-cut conversation despite the inflation backdrop.

Source: Federal Reserve

The News: Nvidia reports first-quarter fiscal 2027 results after today's close. Visible Alpha consensus calls for $78.5 billion in revenue, with the data center segment generating gross profit of $56.4 billion -- 34% higher than the same period last year. Morgan Stanley has set the bar at $285 with a "beat by $3 billion, guide $4 billion higher" framework that the rest of the Street is using as the unofficial whisper number.

Why It Matters: Three sessions of memory-chip selling -- Seagate, Micron, Western Digital, SanDisk -- have raised the stakes. For investors, a clean beat-and-raise pulls the entire AI complex back toward last week's highs; an in-line release does the opposite. For chip customers, guidance commentary on Blackwell Ultra availability is the single most important data point for hyperscaler capex assumptions through year-end.

What to Watch: The Q2 revenue guide and any change in gross margin outlook. Anything below 75% gross margin would suggest pricing pressure has finally arrived in datacenter GPUs.

Source: S&P Global

The News: TJX Companies reported first-quarter fiscal 2027 results before the open, beating both top and bottom lines. The company also issued Q2 EPS guidance of $1.15-$1.17 against consensus of $1.17, signaling continued momentum across T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods. Comparable sales rose in line with the company's full-year target, and management raised the full-year EPS outlook.

Why It Matters: Off-price keeps doing what off-price does -- gaining share in the apparel and home categories where Macy's, Kohl's, and Target are losing it. For investors, TJX is the second straight retail beat (Walmart, now TJX) suggesting the trade-down consumer narrative is intact. For consumers, the company's commentary on inventory availability suggests off-price merchandise will be plentiful through summer despite tariff noise.

What to Watch: Whether the second-quarter EPS guide of $1.15-$1.17 -- effectively flat year-over-year -- is conservative or signals tariff drag landing in Q2.

Source: TJX Companies

The News: The UK Office for National Statistics reported April CPI at 2.8% year-over-year, down sharply from 3.3% in March and undercutting consensus of 3.1%. The decline reflects easing services inflation and a base effect from last year's energy price reset. Markets immediately priced in a higher probability of an August Bank of England rate cut.

Why It Matters: This is the first British inflation reading below 3% since November and the first big developed-market disinflation reading of the summer. For investors, lower UK inflation pulls gilt yields down and gives the BoE room to ease while the Fed holds. For currency traders, this is bearish sterling and bullish the dollar-pound carry trade.

What to Watch: Whether services inflation -- still around 4.2% -- continues to soften. That is the BoE's single binding indicator.

Source: ONS

The News: Statistics Canada reported April headline CPI at 2.8% year-over-year, up from 2.4% in March -- the highest reading in two years but below the 3.1% consensus. The increase was almost entirely driven by gasoline prices up 28.6% year-over-year and overall energy up 19.2%. The Bank of Canada's preferred core inflation metrics (median and trim) actually fell to an average of 2.1%, the lowest in five years.

Why It Matters: This is the textbook "tariff and oil shock" picture: headline inflation rising because of energy, core inflation cooling on the underlying disinflation trend. For investors, that combination keeps the Bank of Canada on its current easing path despite the headline noise. For consumers, fuel costs are now up nearly 30% versus a year ago, which will start showing up in trucked goods.

What to Watch: The June 4 Bank of Canada decision. Markets are still pricing in roughly a 60% chance of a cut, and today's core data supports that path.

Source: Trading Economics

The News: President Trump issued his sharpest ultimatum yet on the Iran nuclear program, telling reporters there would be either a deal or an attack "within days." The statement followed an emergency UN Security Council session this week after Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps allegedly mounted a drone attack against a UAE nuclear reactor. Brent crude steadied near $108 after dropping below $110 yesterday.

Why It Matters: This is roughly the seventh public deadline President Trump has issued on Iran, but the UN session and the UAE incident materially raise the credibility of this one. For investors, expect the oil curve to remain elevated and energy-stock volatility to stay above seasonal norms. For global growth watchers, a multi-month Middle East premium in crude is now the single largest risk to the disinflation thesis.

What to Watch: Whether Iran's foreign minister offers a counter-proposal before week's end. If not, expect Brent to test $115.

Source: TV7 Israel News

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