Good Afternoon. From Washington to Wall Street, optimism finally broke through the gridlock. A Senate deal to end the record-long shutdown lifted stocks and sentiment. Across the Atlantic, Europe is rethinking its digital identity, tightening on Huawei, loosening on privacy. Progress comes in all forms, apparently, even legislative. Let’s get into it.

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1. Markets Rally as Shutdown Deal Nears Finish Line

The News: U.S. stocks surged Monday as Washington appeared close to ending the record-long government shutdown. The Senate advanced a bipartisan funding measure late Sunday, with the House expected to take it up next. The S&P 500 rose over 1%, led by tech and chipmakers including Micron and TSMC, while gold, Treasury yields, and bitcoin all climbed. Chinese markets also rallied as October data showed easing deflation.

Why It Matters: A resolution to the shutdown would unlock weeks of delayed economic data, crucial for the Fed’s December rate call, and restore paychecks to more than two million federal workers, potentially lifting near-term consumer spending. The rebound in risk assets suggests investors are betting on a cleaner policy path heading into year-end. Airlines, retailers, and contractors stand to gain most if the government reopens before the Thanksgiving travel rush.

What to Watch: The House vote on the funding bill and the release of backlogged reports—especially September jobs data—will test whether this relief rally has legs or just borrowed time before the next fiscal fight.
Source: wsj.com

2. UBS Sees S&P 500 Hitting 7,500 by 2026 on AI Boom and Profit Power

The News: UBS lifted its S&P 500 forecast to 7,500 by year-end 2026, citing a powerful mix of AI investment and 14.4% projected earnings growth. Roughly half that profit surge is expected from the tech sector, led by the “Magnificent Seven.” The bank said capital spending on AI, software, and data infrastructure added nearly 0.8 percentage points to U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025. UBS expects broader participation across sectors once tariffs fade and rate cuts kick in next year.

Why It Matters: UBS’s outlook underscores how dependent U.S. growth—and market optimism—have become on AI-related capex. If productivity gains spill into non-tech industries, the rally could sustain; if not, valuations already at 22x forward earnings could face pressure. The call frames a key Wall Street divide: whether this is another late-’90s-style boom or a bubble waiting to burst. For investors, UBS’s base case still points to strong upside from current S&P levels.

What to Watch: The next few quarters of earnings will test whether AI-driven productivity spreads beyond Silicon Valley. Watch for Fed rate cuts, tariff impacts, and corporate capex trends—UBS’s 7,500 target assumes all three stars align.
Source: reuters.com

3. Bessent Hints Trump’s $2,000 “Dividend” Could Come Through Tax Cuts

The News: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Trump’s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” for Americans may not be a direct payment, but instead flow through recent tax cuts. Speaking on ABC’s This Week, Bessent cited measures such as no taxes on tips, overtime, or Social Security, and new deductions on auto loans as ways households might feel the benefit. The comments followed Trump’s social media post promising payments to “everyone (not including high income people!)” amid his defense of sweeping tariffs challenged at the Supreme Court.

Why It Matters: The remarks clarify that the so-called “dividend” may resemble a policy rebrand, not a stimulus check—a symbolic move tying voter relief to Trump’s tariff and tax strategy. While the administration touts tariffs as a “fair trade” tool that could bring in “trillions,” economists warn that higher import costs could offset any household gains. The Supreme Court’s pending ruling on the legality of the tariffs could also upend that fiscal math entirely.

What to Watch: Keep an eye on how Treasury frames the dividend narrative in coming weeks and whether tax receipts or inflation data show any real household benefit. And if that $2,000 doesn’t show up soon, don’t be surprised if Americans start checking their Venmo instead of their tax returns.
Source: finance.yahoo.com

4. Merck’s Oral Cholesterol Pill Cuts LDL by 56% in Landmark Trial

The News: Merck (MRK) reported that its experimental oral PCSK9 inhibitor, Enlicitide Decanoate, cut “bad” LDL cholesterol by nearly 56% versus placebo in its pivotal Phase 3 CORALreef Lipids trial. Results presented at the American Heart Association’s 2025 sessions showed LDL reductions sustained for a year, with a placebo-like safety profile and minimal side effects. The once-daily pill achieved LDL-C targets in two-thirds of patients, a major advance over current statins and injectable PCSK9 drugs. Merck plans to file regulatory submissions worldwide next year.

Why It Matters: If approved, Enlicitide would become the first oral PCSK9 inhibitor—a potential game changer for millions struggling to hit cholesterol goals despite statins. Cardiovascular disease remains the world’s top killer, and easier access to potent LDL-lowering therapy could reshape how heart disease is treated globally. For Merck, it also extends a decades-long legacy in cardiometabolic drugs and positions it against Amgen and Regeneron. The overall cholesterol medicine market is estimated at $35.5 billion in 2025 and expected to reach $53.5 billion by 2035.

What to Watch: Regulatory review timelines and results from Merck’s ongoing CORALreef Outcomes trial will determine if Enlicitide can prove it not only lowers LDL but also prevents heart attacks and strokes. If it does, cardiologists might finally swap syringes for pill bottles and pharmacists may need bigger shelves to keep these drugs in stock.
Source: merk.com

5. Dollar Dips as Traders Bet on 2025 Fed Rate Cuts

The News: The U.S. dollar slipped Monday as traders ramped up bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, even while officials like New York Fed President John Williams cautioned that inflation remains stubbornly high. Futures markets now price a 63% chance of a December cut, down from 95% just two weeks ago, as investors recalibrate around mixed signals from the Fed and Washington. Meanwhile, the euro gained on improving Eurozone growth and expectations that the ECB has paused easing, while the yen climbed as Japan’s central bank signaled another rate hike in December.

Why It Matters: Currency markets are caught between U.S. policy uncertainty and global divergence with Europe stabilizing, Japan normalizing, and the U.S. stuck debating tariffs and inflation. A Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s tariffs could weaken dollar confidence further, compounding what has already been a volatile year for the greenback. For importers and travelers, a softer dollar means pricier goods abroad but stronger tailwinds for U.S. exporters and multinationals.

What to Watch: Keep an eye on next week’s CPI data and any fresh Fed commentary, both could swing rate expectations before the December meeting. Until then, the dollar looks like it’s on a treadmill: plenty of movement, not much progress… and definitely breaking a sweat.
Source: investing.com

1. BYD’s Megafactory Now Dwarfs Tesla’s, Cementing China’s EV Reign

The News: Satellite images show BYD’s Zhengzhou megafactory has more than doubled in size to 22.5 square kilometers, making it several times larger than Tesla’s Austin Gigafactory (3.5 sq km). The site now employs over 60,000 workers and features a new test circuit complete with a dune-climbing sand hill and a 70-meter wade pool for BYD’s $150,000 amphibious SUV, the Yangwang U8. Despite a recent 33% drop in quarterly profits and two months of declining sales, BYD remains on pace to overtake Tesla as the world’s top EV maker in 2025, fueled by global expansion into Europe, Turkey, and Brazil.

Why It Matters: BYD’s rapid buildout shows how China’s EV industry is scaling faster than any Western rival. While Tesla grapples with slowing European demand, BYD’s production and retail footprint—plus 300% growth in Europe this year—signal a long-term shift in electric dominance. The megafactory underscores Beijing’s manufacturing edge and BYD’s bet that sheer capacity beats pricing headwinds in a cutthroat EV market. For Tesla, it’s another reminder that the global EV crown may soon reside permanently in Shenzhen.

What to Watch: Keep an eye on BYD’s European rollout and margin recovery as it opens 1,000 stores across the continent by 2026. If it can balance scale with profits, Elon Musk might have to start calling Austin “the midsize factory.”
Source: finance.yahoo.com

2. EU Considers Bloc-Wide Ban on Huawei and ZTE from 5G Networks

The News: The European Commission is weighing a plan to legally require all EU member states to phase out Huawei and ZTE equipment from their telecom networks, according to Bloomberg. The proposal, spearheaded by Commission Vice President Henna Virkkunen, would turn the EU’s 2020 security “recommendation” into a binding rule—ending years of national discretion. The move comes as Germany and Finland debate tighter restrictions and follows renewed concerns about Chinese influence over Europe’s communications infrastructure.

Why It Matters: The plan could spark a major political and economic battle across the bloc. While hawkish countries like Sweden and the U.K. already banned Huawei, southern and eastern members have resisted, citing cost and performance advantages of Chinese gear. A mandate would force telecom operators to rip out and replace billions in equipment—potentially disrupting 5G rollout timelines but aligning Europe more closely with U.S. national security policy. It also signals growing unease as China restricts Western vendors like Nokia and Ericsson at home.

What to Watch: Expect fierce lobbying from telecoms and member states before any vote, as well as possible retaliation from Beijing. If Brussels holds firm, Europe’s next 5G battle won’t be over speed, it’ll be over sovereignty.
Source: financialpost.com

3. Europe Plans to Soften Its Landmark Privacy and AI Rules

The News: The European Commission is preparing to unveil the “Digital Omnibus” on Nov. 19, a sweeping package that could weaken GDPR privacy protections and delay key parts of the AI Act, according to leaked drafts. The reforms aim to simplify compliance for small firms but would narrow the definition of personal data, loosen consent rules for cookies, and allow companies to use sensitive information for AI training under “legitimate interest.” The plan follows calls by Mario Draghi to cut red tape and boost competitiveness against the U.S. and China.

Why It Matters: If adopted, the Omnibus would mark a sharp policy reversal for the EU, which spent a decade positioning GDPR and the AI Act as global gold standards. Weaker privacy rights could make European data more accessible to Big Tech, while delayed enforcement on “high-risk” AI systems could reduce accountability and transparency. Privacy advocates warn the move risks turning Europe’s digital model from a rights-first framework into a business-first experiment and eroding its moral authority in global tech regulation.

What to Watch: The draft faces internal EU debate before its Nov. 19 reveal, but business lobbies are cheering while privacy watchdogs sharpen their pencils. If Brussels trades privacy for productivity, expect Silicon Valley to send thank-you cards and a few new cookie pop-ups to celebrate.
Source: techpolicypress.com

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