Good Afternoon. Mid-October means two kinds of prepping: Halloween costumes and Q4 positioning. Between Washington setting price floors and Big Tech setting records, markets are full of things that look like treats. Let’s get into it.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

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1. U.S. to Set Price Floors in Strategic Sectors to Counter China

The News: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration will impose price floors across key industries to counter what he called China’s market manipulation, starting with rare earths. The U.S. may also take equity stakes in select companies to secure supply chains and prevent Beijing from undercutting prices. JPMorgan Chase is in talks to help build a strategic mineral reserve, while the Department of Defense already holds a stake and offtake deal with MP Materials, the largest U.S. rare earth miner. China recently tightened rare earth export restrictions, escalating trade tensions ahead of a Trump–Xi meeting in Seoul.

Why It Matters: The plan signals a shift toward industrial policy by decree, blending protectionism with state-backed investment—an unusual mix for Washington. For markets, it raises questions about pricing power, government intervention, and where the line between “strategic” and “political” really lies. Rare earths power everything from EVs to missiles, so this isn’t just about tariffs—it’s about leverage.

What to Watch: Which industries get price floors next, how allies respond, and whether corporate America welcomes or resists government balance sheets at the table. Because when Treasury starts setting prices, you’re not just in a trade war anymore, you’re in an economic redesign and you know its serious when Republicans roll out socialist economic practices.
Source: cnbc.com

2. Gold Breaks $4,200 as Crypto Outflows Hit Record $21B

The News: Gold futures crossed $4,200 per ounce for the first time Tuesday, closing at $4,197.60—up nearly 60% in 2025, per CME data. The rally came as $21 billion flowed out of Binance and other crypto exchanges following last week’s “Black Friday” crash in digital assets. Analysts called it a “flight-to-safety” rotation ahead of the Fed’s Beige Book release, as traders brace for possible tightening. Prediction markets now assign a 76% chance that gold will outperform Bitcoin this year.

Why It Matters: The gold surge and crypto drain show investors abandoning risk for liquidity, hedging against policy uncertainty and geopolitical tension. Gold has reclaimed its “ultimate hedge” status just as Bitcoin’s volatility reminds traders why old stores of value never really die. Whether this is tactical or structural depends on the Fed’s next move and the market’s nerves.

What to Watch: Sentiment from the Fed’s Beige Book (mostly just for finance nerds), rate-cut odds, and whether sidelined crypto capital rotates back once the dust settles. Seems like when fear spikes, faith in digital gold fades and the real stuff suddenly looks a lot shinier.
Source: finance.yahoo.com

3. “When You See One Cockroach, There Are Probably More”

The News: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that recent loan losses tied to bankrupt subprime auto lender Tricolor could signal broader credit risks ahead. The $170 million hit, booked in Q3, stemmed from short-term loans to non-bank finance clients. While Dimon called the loss “immaterial,” he admitted it “was not our finest moment” and vowed to tighten oversight. The warning comes as Fifth Third Bank faces similar fraud-linked losses and as private-credit markets balloon with limited transparency. Dimon also urged regulators to accelerate Basel III reforms to ease capital pressures on banks.

Why It Matters: Dimon’s “cockroach” comment wasn’t about insects, it was about contagion. After a decade of easy credit, even small cracks in private lending could reveal deeper structural rot. With unemployment risks rising and opaque private loans expanding, banks are bracing for surprises in places they thought were safe.

What to Watch: Fallout from Tricolor’s bankruptcy, upcoming Fifth Third results, and any regulatory scrutiny of private credit’s hidden corners. Because when the world’s biggest banker starts turning on the kitchen light, it’s worth checking what’s crawling under your own portfolio.
Source: marketwatch.com

4. Walmart Stock Jumps on OpenAI Shopping Partnership

The News: Walmart (WMT) shares rose 5% to a record $107.21 after announcing a partnership with OpenAI that lets ChatGPT users buy Walmart products directly through the chatbot. The feature, set to launch this fall, marks a major step in OpenAI’s push into e-commerce—following similar deals with Etsy and Shopify. Walmart CEO Doug McMillon called it a “new era” of shopping, replacing search bars with conversational recommendations. The move complements Walmart’s own AI assistant, Sparky, and builds on its rapidly growing retail media and loyalty ecosystem.

Why It Matters: The tie-up gives Walmart front-row access to the next frontier of “agentic commerce”—AI-powered shopping driven by chatbots, not clicks. It also positions Walmart as the first major retailer to fully monetize OpenAI’s massive user base, potentially challenging Amazon’s dominance in online search and retail advertising. For consumers, the line between “asking” and “buying” just blurred in real time.

What to Watch: Rollout timing, revenue share with OpenAI, and whether AI-driven referrals cut into Walmart’s direct platform traffic. Because when your next impulse buy starts with, “Hey ChatGPT, I need party snacks,” the future starts to feel real.
Source: investors.com

5. Bank of America Profit Jumps 23% on Strong U.S. Economy

The News: Bank of America Q3 profit rose 23% to $8.47B ($1.06/share, vs. $0.95 est.). Revenue +11% to $28.09B (vs. $27.52B est.). Net interest income hit a record $15.2B. Consumer spend was $245B on credit/debit cards (+6%). Credit-card loans were $102.11B (+1% YoY). Net charge-offs $1.4B, down 11% on fewer card and CRE losses. IB fees $2B (+43%); trading +9%. Commercial loans +13% YoY (institutional clients). Management sees more NII growth this year; shares +4% premarket.

Why It Matters: For households, spending is still holding up—and delinquencies haven’t spiked—keeping credit flowing. For investors, record NII plus a rebound in IB/trading shows big-bank earnings now pull from multiple engines, not just rates. Risks: any labor-market slip or geopolitical shock could dent card health and deal activity.

What to Watch: Net Interest Income trajectory into Q4, card delinquencies, and whether IPO/M&A pipelines stay open. Because if your card APR still feels high, $15.2B in net interest income is where that spread shows up, on the bank’s income statement, not yours. If you have credit card debt, look for a balance transfer card. Pending your credit score and balance, the savings can be huge. As Albert Einstein once said, “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ... he who doesn't ... pays it.”
Source: wsj.com

1. Nscale to Supply Microsoft With 200,000 Nvidia AI Chips

The News: UK-based Nscale will deploy roughly 200,000 Nvidia GPUs for Microsoft across new data centers in Europe and the U.S., expanding a partnership that already includes a 52,000-GPU supply from its Norway venture with Aker. The deal, executed with Dell Technologies, could be worth up to $14 billion, per the Financial Times. Nscale, backed by Nvidia, Aker, and Nokia, recently raised $1.1 billion to accelerate its infrastructure build-out, with first deliveries expected in 2026.

Why It Matters: The contract cements Microsoft’s push to secure AI compute capacity outside its own footprint while diversifying its data-center geography. For Nscale, it’s a leap from startup to hyperscale supplier—proof that Europe wants a seat at the AI hardware table. With global AI infrastructure spending projected to reach $2.8 trillion by 2029, this deal signals that capital and capacity are racing neck-and-neck.

What to Watch: Delivery timelines, energy costs in Texas and Norway, and whether Microsoft deepens equity ties with key suppliers like Nscale. Because the next time ChatGPT feels “slow,” it may not be your Wi-Fi. It’ll be whether these GPUs made it on time.
Source: reuters.com

2. IMF, Pakistan Reach Staff-Level Deal on $1.2 B Payout

The News: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan, unlocking $1.2 billion in funding pending board approval. The deal includes $1 billion under the Extended Fund Facility and $200 million through the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, bringing total disbursements to $3.3 billion. The IMF said Pakistan’s recovery “remains on track,” citing lower inflation, stronger reserves, and narrower sovereign spreads. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb added that Pakistan plans to issue its first yuan-denominated green bond and a $1 billion global bond later this year.

Why It Matters: For Islamabad, the deal stabilizes an economy still reeling from 2023’s debt and inflation crises. IMF backing unlocks new capital-market access and buys breathing room ahead of major repayments. But reform fatigue, especially on taxes and energy pricing, still threatens long-term stability.

What to Watch: The IMF board’s approval timeline, Pakistan’s next bond issuance, and whether investors believe this recovery has real legs. Pakistan’s economy just got a life raft, now it just needs to paddle fast enough to reach shore.
Source: usnews.com

3. Czechoslovak Group (CSG) Eyes €30B IPO Amid Europe’s Defense Boom

The News: Prague-based Czechoslovak Group (CSG), owned by billionaire Michal Strnad, is preparing a landmark IPO in Amsterdam as soon as early 2026, aiming to raise €3+ billion at a €30 billion valuation. That would make it Europe’s largest defense listing in decades and rank CSG just behind BAE Systems and Rheinmetall. The company—maker of armored vehicles, artillery shells, and munitions—has seen revenue soar on surging orders linked to the war in Ukraine, which accounted for 43% of sales last year. CSG has hired BNP Paribas, Jefferies, JPMorgan, UniCredit, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, Erste, and Morgan Stanley to lead the offering.

Why It Matters: The IPO marks Europe’s first major defense float since the Ukraine war reignited demand for weapons—and normalized defense as an investment theme. For investors, CSG offers pure-play exposure to NATO rearmament and EU sovereignty initiatives. For governments, it’s proof that private arms makers can now tap capital markets as easily as tech firms once did. The listing could set a template for peers like Saab and Leonardo, signaling defense’s return as a mainstream asset class.

What to Watch: Final IPO timing, government contract continuity, and how markets price geopolitical risk into growth stories. Because when Europe starts IPO-ing munitions makers, you start to think peace may have lost its pricing power. What’s that old latin saying? If you want peace, prepare for war?
Source: bloomberg.com

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_{Stocks & Income is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Do your own research.}