Good Afternoon. On this day in 1981, IBM unveiled its $1,565 Personal Computer at New York’s Waldorf Hotel. Its open design helped turn computing into an ecosystem.

Forty-five years later, the boxes are bigger, the bills are steeper, and AI servers are again showing what happens when useful infrastructure meets strong demand.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

🔢 Big number: $104 billion — That’s CoreWeave’s revenue backlog at the end of June, before more than $25 billion of new customer commitments added early this quarter. It’s a huge demand signal—and a reminder that contracts still have to become powered capacity, delivered service, and cash.

The July inflation report didn’t deliver an all-clear, but it did remove one layer of pressure. Consumer prices rose more slowly over the year, core inflation eased, and grocery prices actually dipped for the month. That’s welcome breathing room for household budgets after the spring’s energy shock, even if the cumulative cost of living is still much higher than it was a few years ago.

The news: The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in July and 3.4% over the past year, down from June’s 3.5% annual rate. Core prices, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2% for the month and 2.5% over the year. It wasn’t a uniform cooldown: gasoline fell 2.9% during July but remained 24.6% above a year earlier, while airline fares rose 2.2%. Shelter increased just 0.1%, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the overall monthly rise.

What’s next: One better report doesn’t reverse the energy shock or guarantee lower interest rates. It does suggest that underlying inflation hasn’t accelerated alongside oil, which gives the Federal Reserve more room to wait. Households can’t control the next gas-price move, but they can use this pause to review variable-rate debt, rebuild cash reserves, and make sure wage gains are still beating their personal mix of expenses.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Markets didn’t need inflation to disappear; they needed it to stop getting worse while corporate growth stayed intact. That combination arrived Wednesday as softer price data lowered the immediate rate threat and strong AI results supported the market’s largest investment theme. The rally wasn’t broad enough to erase every concern, but it showed why macro relief works best when earnings supply their own proof.

The news: The S&P 500 finished up close to 0.3%, the Nasdaq Composite gained roughly 0.5%, and the Dow was down less than 0.1%. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 4.68% from 4.70%, while traders cut the implied chance of a September Federal Reserve increase to roughly 40% from about even odds a day earlier. It wasn’t a universal risk-on move: homebuilders fell as mortgage rates and affordability kept housing under pressure.

Bottom line: A cooler CPI can lower the hurdle for stocks, but it can’t carry the market if earnings expectations outrun business results. Tomorrow’s producer-price report will show whether companies are absorbing or passing along more of their input costs. Watch yields as closely as indexes: if longer-term borrowing costs stay elevated despite better inflation, housing and other rate-sensitive businesses won’t receive much practical relief.

Source: Associated Press

Supermicro gave the AI buildout something more useful than another spending promise: delivered revenue, better margins, and a much larger forward sales range. The server maker is benefiting as customers move from reserving chips to assembling whole data centers. That’s also why execution matters—the opportunity gets less forgiving as order sizes, customer concentration, and financing needs increase.

The news: Fiscal fourth-quarter sales reached $11.1 billion, nearly double the prior year, while gross margin improved to 17.5% from 9.5%. Net income climbed to $1.18 billion, and management said it booked more than $60 billion in new orders during the year. It’s forecasting $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion of sales this quarter and $65 billion to $72 billion for fiscal 2027. Shares were up close to 19.6% after the results.

Big picture: A large order book doesn’t remove manufacturing, export-control, or customer-mix risk. Supermicro still has to convert demand into systems that arrive on time and earn acceptable margins, while an independent board review of certain export-control-related transactions remains underway. Watch gross margin and cash conversion alongside sales; they’ll reveal whether faster growth is making the business sturdier or simply larger.

Source: Supermicro

CoreWeave is scaling at a speed that would look improbable in most industries. Revenue more than doubled as companies rented access to specialized AI computing, and adjusted operating income remained positive. The tradeoff hasn’t vanished: building data centers before customers use them requires enormous capital, and interest expense is consuming a meaningful share of what the infrastructure produces.

The news: It’s a sharp scale-up: second-quarter revenue reached $2.58 billion, up from $1.21 billion a year earlier, while adjusted operating income was $128 million and adjusted operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $1.51 billion. The company still posted a $626 million net loss, including $640 million of net interest expense. Its June backlog stood near $104 billion, excluding more than $25 billion of new commitments added early in the third quarter. Shares rose close to 19.4%.

What’s next: Backlog makes demand visible, but it doesn’t make power, land, chips, or financing instantly available. CoreWeave has to bring capacity online without letting debt costs erase the benefit of operating scale. Watch how quickly committed contracts enter service and whether adjusted operating margin improves; the AI cloud model will be judged on profitable delivery, not merely on how many customers want a place in line.

Source: CoreWeave

Crop forecasts don’t stay on the farm. They influence feed costs, grocery prices, biofuel supply, export revenue, and the cash flow available to rural businesses. The Agriculture Department’s August report is especially useful because it replaces some early-season assumptions with farmer interviews and field-based measurements, giving the market a clearer view of what may actually reach harvest.

The news: USDA released its first survey-based 2026 corn and soybean production estimates at noon Wednesday. The starting acreage map already looked different from last year: farmers planted 95.3 million acres of corn, down 3%, and 85.4 million acres of soybeans, up 5%. The new crop report also reduced the Durum wheat forecast 6% from its prior estimate and 23% from 2025. It’s a reminder that one national headline can hide very different regional and crop-level outcomes.

Bottom line: A forecast isn’t a harvested bushel, and August weather can still change yields, quality, and transportation needs. Farmers should compare the national estimates with local field conditions before locking in sales or inputs, while food and livestock businesses can test budgets against both lower and higher feed scenarios. Watch the September update and export demand; supply only becomes price relief when it reaches the right buyers efficiently.

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

The oil market is learning that a stable price isn’t the same thing as a comfortable supply balance. Brent ended near $88.74, but the International Energy Agency now sees a much larger third-quarter shortfall than it did a month ago. Inventories can bridge disruptions for a while; they can’t replace a durable return of production and shipping through the Middle East.

The news: The IEA’s August outlook raised its estimated third-quarter oil deficit to about 1.8 million barrels per day, more than double July’s roughly 800,000-barrel estimate. That gap comes even as elevated prices and disrupted trade have weakened demand in parts of the world. It’s the difficult version of an energy shortage: consumers conserve because fuel is expensive, yet available supply still isn’t rebuilding inventories quickly enough.

Big picture: Today’s softer U.S. inflation data looks backward, while the IEA’s warning points forward. Airlines, manufacturers, and households shouldn’t build plans around a straight-line decline in fuel costs. Watch physical shipping volumes and inventories rather than every daily oil move; sustained improvement there would offer real relief, while another disruption could quickly reach transportation bills and central-bank decisions.

Source: International Energy Agency

China’s largest internet platforms aren’t treating AI as a side project; they’re placing it inside advertising, games, cloud services, and the infrastructure budget. Tencent showed why that can support revenue while also squeezing cash flow. The investment case depends on existing products becoming more useful and profitable—not merely on owning more computing capacity.

The news: Second-quarter revenue reached roughly 204.8 billion yuan, while operating profit was about 67.3 billion yuan and net income came in near 56.0 billion yuan. Capital spending reached approximately 52.8 billion yuan, equal to more than a quarter of quarterly revenue. It’s a sizeable commitment to models, chips, and data-center capacity at a time when the company also has to defend engagement across gaming, social media, advertising, and payments.

What’s next: Tencent has distribution that most AI developers would envy, but distribution doesn’t guarantee attractive returns on every infrastructure dollar. Management will have to show that smarter recommendations, advertising tools, and game development can lift revenue and efficiency faster than depreciation and power costs rise. Watch capital spending and free cash flow together; the gap between them will show whether AI is becoming an earnings engine or an increasingly expensive requirement.

Source: Tencent

European banks are still benefiting from relatively high interest rates, but the easy part of that story is fading. ABN AMRO used a stronger second quarter to raise its full-year net-interest-income outlook, signaling that its core lending spread is holding up better than feared. The market’s positive reaction also reflects how low expectations can amplify a credible upgrade.

The news: It’s a profitable combination: net profit rose 29% from a year earlier to €781 million, return on equity improved to 12.1%, and management raised its 2026 commercial net-interest-income outlook to €6.8 billion, including newly acquired NIBC. It also lowered full-year cost guidance to €5.5 billion and reported a cost of risk of just 4 basis points. Shares rose close to 5% following the report.

Bottom line: Higher interest income isn’t permanent, and it can be offset if borrowers weaken or deposit customers demand more. ABN AMRO still has to manage costs, upcoming workforce reductions, and anti-money-laundering controls while protecting lending quality. Watch loan losses and deposit pricing alongside the upgraded income outlook; they’ll determine how much of today’s benefit can survive when policy rates eventually move lower.

Source: ABN AMRO

Q: Why’d the grocery receipt join a gym?

A: It couldn’t carry all that inflation.

An investment’s gain after subtracting inflation, showing whether purchasing power actually increased.

In a sentence: July inflation cooled to 3.4%, but savers will still need returns above that pace if they’re going to earn a positive real return and move ahead after rising prices.

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