Good Afternoon. So much for the ceasefire rally. Last night's primetime address was supposed to be the moment Trump laid out an exit plan. Instead, he doubled down on escalation, vowed to hit Iran "extremely hard" for two to three more weeks, and barely mentioned the Strait of Hormuz. Oil jumped 7% overnight, Asian markets reversed hard, and the two-day euphoria trade vaporized by morning. Meanwhile, Blue Owl became the latest private credit fund to slam the gates on investors trying to leave, and NASA actually managed to deliver some good news, four astronauts are on their way towards the moon for the first time in 53 years.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Trump's Primetime Address Was Supposed to Calm the Markets -- It Did the Exact Opposite

The News: President Trump delivered his first national address since the Iran war began, outlining "Operation Epic Fury" and declaring that Iran's nuclear program has been "completely decimated." But the speech contained none of the diplomatic language markets were hoping for. Instead, Trump vowed to "hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks" and promised to "bring them back to the stone ages where they belong." He made no mention of ceasefire negotiations, didn't endorse the China-Pakistan peace plan, and said reopening the Strait of Hormuz was a problem for European and Asian allies -- not America's.

Why It Matters: Wall Street was positioned for de-escalation. It got escalation. The S&P 500 futures, which had been pointing to a third day of gains, reversed immediately. Oil surged 7% overnight, with Brent jumping back above $107 and WTI topping $106. For investors, this is a textbook "sell the news" moment -- Tuesday's and Wednesday's rally was built on hope, and last night's speech offered none. For the economy, the speech all but guarantees gas prices will keep climbing past $4.

What to Watch: Trump's self-imposed April 6 deadline to resume strikes on Iran's energy grid. If talks don't produce a framework by then, expect a major escalation -- and $115 oil.

Source: cnbc.com

2. Blue Owl Caps Withdrawals After Investors Try to Pull $5.4 Billion from Two Funds -- the Private Credit Dam Keeps Cracking

The News: Blue Owl Capital revealed Thursday that investors attempted to withdraw roughly $5.4 billion from two of its largest private credit funds in Q1. The Owl Technology Corp fund saw redemption requests hit 40.7% of its $3 billion net asset value, while its flagship $20 billion Blue Owl Credit Income Corp (OCIC) fund faced 21.9% withdrawal requests. The firm has capped redemptions at 5% for both funds -- a standard gate provision that effectively locks remaining investors in. Shares fell approximately 7%.

Why It Matters: Blue Owl is the third major private credit manager to hit the brakes this quarter, following Apollo and Ares Capital's withdrawal caps in March. The pattern is clear: investors who poured into private credit during the low-rate era are now scrambling for the exits as the Iran war drives uncertainty and rising rates erode credit quality. For investors, the 40.7% redemption rate at the tech fund is staggering -- nearly half the fund's investors wanted out. For the broader market, private credit holds $1.7 trillion in assets, and the gating trend raises questions about whether this is an orderly slowdown or the start of something worse.

What to Watch: Whether the contagion spreads to Blackstone, Carlyle, and KKR's semi-liquid credit products, which face their own quarterly redemption windows in April.

Source: wsj.com

3. Jobless Claims Fall to 202,000 and the Trade Deficit Narrows

The News: Initial jobless claims dropped to 202,000 for the week ending March 28 -- down 9,000 from the prior week and well below the Dow Jones estimate of 212,000. Continuing claims fell to 1.841 million. Separately, the February trade deficit came in at $57.3 billion, wider than January's $54.7 billion but significantly below the $62 billion consensus estimate. Year-over-year, the deficit for the first two months of 2026 is down a remarkable 54.8%.

Why It Matters: The labor market continues to defy gravity. At 202,000, initial claims are at their lowest level in months, and the four-week moving average is the lowest since late September. For the Fed, this is good news and bad news -- a strong labor market means no recession, but it also means no urgency to cut rates. For trade, the narrowing deficit reflects the aftermath of last year's tariff-induced import surge reversing, plus the 15% global tariff that went into effect in March.

What to Watch: Tomorrow's March jobs report is the big one. If payrolls surprise to the upside on top of this claims data, rate-cut expectations for 2026 could be pushed to near zero.

Source: cnbc.com

4. AI Is Now Cited in 25% of All U.S. Layoffs

The News: Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported Thursday that U.S. employers announced 60,260 job cuts in March, a 25% increase from February. The most striking figure: approximately 15,341 of those cuts -- roughly 25% -- explicitly cited artificial intelligence as the primary reason. Year-to-date hiring intentions surged 157% from February to 31,826 in March, but overall 2026 hiring is still down 6% versus last year. First-quarter layoffs totaled 217,632, the lowest Q1 figure in four years.

Why It Matters: The AI layoff story has shifted from whisper to headline. A quarter of all job cuts in a single month being attributed to AI is a new high-water mark, up from just 10% in February. Block, Atlassian, and now dozens of smaller firms have made the calculation that AI tools can replace human workers at scale. For investors, this is a double-edged sword: companies cutting headcount for AI are boosting margins, but if the trend accelerates, consumer spending takes a hit. For workers, the CFO survey from Duke and the Fed suggests 502,000 AI-related job losses are coming this year -- a 9x increase from 2025.

What to Watch: Whether the March jobs report on Friday reflects this AI displacement, or whether the laid-off workers are finding new roles fast enough to keep the unemployment rate at 4.4%.

Source: cnbc.com

5. Artemis II Lifts Off -- Four Astronauts Are Headed to the Moon for the First Time in 53 Years

The News: NASA's Artemis II mission launched at 6:35 p.m. ET on Wednesday from Kennedy Space Center, carrying four astronauts on a 10-day, 685,000-mile journey around the moon and back. The crew -- Commander Reid Wiseman, Pilot Victor Glover, Mission Specialists Christina Koch and Jeremy Hansen -- includes the first Black astronaut, the first woman, and the first Canadian to fly to the moon. The launch went smoothly with only minor battery issues, and the crew successfully completed its perigee raise burn Thursday morning, setting course for the translunar injection.

Why It Matters: This is the first crewed flight beyond low Earth orbit since Apollo 17 in December 1972. While Artemis II won't land on the moon, it validates the Orion spacecraft and Space Launch System for future lunar landings. For NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, the mission is a proof point for his ambitious plan to send uncrewed rockets to the moon "on a schedule measured in months rather than years." For the broader space economy, a successful Artemis II keeps the $93 billion Artemis program on track and maintains funding momentum for contractors like Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman.

What to Watch: The translunar injection burn, which will send Orion toward the moon in the coming days. If all goes well, the crew will loop behind the far side of the moon before returning to Earth around April 11.

Source: nasa.gov

1. Asian Markets Reverse Hard -- Kospi Drops 4.5%, Nikkei Falls 2.4% as the Ceasefire Rally Evaporates

The News: The euphoria lasted less than 24 hours. Asian markets plunged on Thursday after Trump's speech shattered hopes for a near-term resolution in Iran. South Korea's Kospi fell 4.5% to 5,234, completely erasing Wednesday's historic 5.3% surge. Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped 2.4% to 52,463. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.8%. South Korea also reported that consumer prices rose 2.2% year-over-year in March, driven almost entirely by soaring fuel costs from the war.

Why It Matters: Yesterday's edition highlighted Asia's biggest rally in a year. Today, nearly all of it is gone. This whipsaw pattern -- surge on peace hope, crash on escalation -- has defined Asian markets since the war began. For investors, Asia remains the most leveraged trade on the Iran war because the region imports more Middle East oil than anyone else. For South Korea specifically, the 4.5% drop is especially painful because government pension funds had been buying the dip aggressively.

What to Watch: Whether China steps in with stimulus to cushion the blow. Beijing has been unusually quiet on monetary policy during the war, and the export sector is starting to feel the energy price squeeze.

Source: newindianexpress.com

2. Oil Surges 7% on Trump's "Stone Age" Rhetoric -- Brent Rockets Back Above $107

The News: Brent crude surged more than 6.6% to approximately $107.95 per barrel on Thursday, while WTI jumped to around $106.22 -- both reversing the previous two days of declines. The spike followed Trump's Wednesday night address, where he made no mention of Hormuz reopening and instead promised to "hit Iran extremely hard." The move effectively erased the hope-driven selloff that had briefly pushed Brent below $100 earlier this week.

Why It Matters: This is the third $100-plus oil whipsaw in a week. The pattern is exhausting -- and expensive. Every time the market prices in peace, Trump or Iran pulls the rug out. For consumers, gas at $4.02 a gallon is now the floor, not the ceiling. For central banks, oil above $107 means the inflation impulse from the war isn't fading -- it's reaccelerating. For energy traders, the prompt spread between June and July Brent contracts is now $8, reflecting maximum disruption expected in the near term.

What to Watch: The April 6 deadline. If Trump follows through on striking Iran's power grid, analysts say Brent could test $120 again. If a deal emerges, $90 is the downside target.

Source: cnbc.com

3. The China-Pakistan Peace Plan Gets Ignored -- and Beijing's Diplomatic Moment Slips Away

The News: The five-point peace plan that China and Pakistan unveiled Tuesday -- calling for an immediate ceasefire, safe passage through Hormuz, and a comprehensive peace framework -- was conspicuously absent from Trump's address. He neither endorsed nor rejected it, and when asked about China's role after the speech, a senior administration official said "we don't need a mediator." Meanwhile, Iran's foreign ministry called Trump's ceasefire claims "false and baseless," and the IRGC continued launching drones at Gulf targets overnight.

Why It Matters: China invested significant diplomatic capital in brokering this deal, and being ignored on the world stage is a strategic setback for Beijing. For the peace process, the plan was the first credible off-ramp with buy-in from a country that has actual leverage with Tehran. Without U.S. engagement, it's essentially dead on arrival. For investors, the collapse of the diplomatic track means the war is back to being a pure military story -- and military stories don't come with timelines.

What to Watch: Whether European allies fill the diplomatic vacuum. The U.K.'s Keir Starmer said Thursday he's coordinating a push to reopen Hormuz, and a coalition meeting is planned for this weekend.

Source: pbs.org

Q: What do you call a pencil with two erasers?

A: Pointless.

One one-hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%). Used in finance to describe small changes in interest rates, bond yields, or fund expense ratios. A move from 4.50% to 4.75% is a 25-basis-point increase.

"When comparing two index funds, my advisor pointed out that a 10- basis point difference in expense ratios could cost me over $15,000 in returns across a 30-year retirement portfolio."

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