Good Afternoon. The housing market finally got a little oxygen: some 30-year rates briefly slipped under 6%, while oil jumped on stalled diplomacy, and the AI buildout keeps expanding—chips in the rack, power on the grid, and video/audio everywhere.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Tech Rebounds & the Dollar Firms

The News: Stocks continued to see-saw Wednesday but finished higher, led by tech, as chip names caught a bid helped by Nvidia’s expanded AI infrastructure partnership with Meta and upbeat reads from parts of the semiconductor ecosystem. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 4.07%, the dollar strengthened, and oil rallied as traders kept one eye on U.S.–Iran tensions. Minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting showed “little appetite” for near-term cuts, even as markets keep trying to pull the first cut forward.

Why It Matters: This is the market’s current split personality: “AI spend is scary” one day, “AI spend is still happening” the next. Nvidia/Meta is a reminder that hyperscalers haven’t slammed the capex brakes, which supports chips, networking, and data-center plumbing. But the Fed minutes matter because they’re the guardrail—if policymakers stay tight while the dollar firms, it’s a headwind for multinationals and a tax on risk appetite.

What to Watch: Watch the next “spending proof” points from mega-cap tech—capex guidance, GPU delivery timelines, and whether AI revenue shows up faster than AI depreciation. And watch oil’s risk premium—if Middle East headlines escalate, you’ll feel it at the pump before you see it in a quarterly report.
Source: wsj.com

2. Nvidia Exits Arm Stake, but Meta Just Re-Upped the AI Chip Order

The News: Nvidia disclosed it sold its remaining stake in Arm, unloading about 1.1 million shares in Q4 2025 (roughly $140M based on recent prices), closing the book on a company it once tried to buy in a $40B deal that collapsed in 2022. Investors mostly shrugged because Nvidia and Meta just expanded a multi-year infrastructure partnership: Meta says it will deploy millions of Nvidia GPUs (including Blackwell and future Rubin generations), plus Nvidia CPUs and networking gear for its AI data centers—helping lift chip sentiment after recent “AI spending pullback” jitters.

Why It Matters: The Arm sale is symbolic more than strategic—Nvidia doesn’t need an equity stake to keep using Arm-based designs in its CPU roadmap, and the real story is demand. A large, explicit Meta commitment is basically Nvidia saying: “Relax, the hyperscalers are still buying.” That matters because the market’s newest obsession is AI ROI—who’s spending, who’s earning, and whether the capex is turning into durable revenue. Meta doubling down helps the whole AI hardware complex (chips, networking, data-center plumbing), and it pressures smaller players to prove they’re not just collateral damage in the “Magnificent Seven budget meeting.”

What to Watch: Watch Meta’s capex and deployment pace—“millions of GPUs” is a headline, but the timing (deliveries, installs, utilization) is what changes earnings models. Watch Nvidia’s CPU traction (Grace now, Vera later) because the next leg of the story is Nvidia trying to be more than “GPU company”—it wants the whole rack.
Source: reuters.com

3. The Fed Wants Banks Back in Mortgages

The News: The Fed is teeing up rule changes meant to pull big banks back into the mortgage business, after years of the market shifting toward nonbank lenders like Rocket and Pennymac. Fed supervision vice chair Michelle Bowman said the proposal would lower capital burdens for banks in two key ways: make mortgage capital more risk-sensitive (so larger down payments = lower capital hit), and ease how mortgage-servicing rights/assets are treated on bank balance sheets—freeing up capacity for banks to originate and service more loans. Banks’ share of mortgage originations has fallen from about 60% in 2008 to roughly 35% by 2023, according to the Fed.

Why It Matters: For borrowers, more bank competition could mean better pricing at the margin—especially on fees—because banks have massive customer funnels and can afford to fight for share. For the system, the Fed’s argument is “banks are sturdier”: diversified balance sheets and access to safety nets can make them more resilient servicers in a downturn (Bowman cited pandemic-era forbearance outcomes). The flip side is political and practical: loosening capital rules always raises the “are we repeating 2008 mistakes?” reflex, and nonbanks will fight hard to keep their turf.

What to Watch: Watch for the formal proposal text and comment window—especially the details on mortgage-servicing assets (the current 250% risk weight is a big lever) and how down payment/loan-to-value feeds into capital. Watch whether big banks actually re-expand or just cherry-pick the safest loans; “more competition” only helps if it shows up in real approvals and real pricing.
Source: wsj.com

4. Mortgage Rates Hit Three-Year Lows

The News: Mortgage rates slid to their lowest levels in more than three years as a bond rally pulled down Treasury yields. Zillow’s daily read put the 30-year fixed at 5.79% on Feb. 18, 2026 (other trackers were in the high-5% range), while Freddie Mac’s weekly survey still has the 30-year at 6.09% as of Feb. 12—so the exact number depends on who you ask and when they measure. Lower rates are already waking up refinancing: MBA data showed mortgage applications up 2.8% WoW, with refis up 132% YoY.

Why It Matters: Sub-6% (even briefly) is the first real psychological break the housing market’s had in a while—especially for refi-eligible homeowners and buyers staring at monthly payments. It won’t fix inventory, but it can loosen the lock-in effect and bring rate-sensitive buyers back off the sidelines. Redfin estimates the income needed to afford the typical U.S. home is now about $111,252, down 4% from a year ago—small improvements, but meaningful when your payment is the whole problem.

What to Watch: Watch whether the 10-year yield stays low—mortgage rates follow bonds more than Fed speeches, and a quick yield snapback can erase this relief fast. Watch purchase apps versus refis; a refi wave helps household cash flow, but a purchase rebound is what actually moves housing.
Source: finance.yahoo.com

5. Google’s Gemini Now Makes Music

The News: Google rolled out AI music generation inside the Gemini app using DeepMind’s Lyria 3, letting users create 30-second tracks from text prompts—or even from uploaded photos/videos—for users 18+ (desktop first, mobile in the coming days). Google says tracks are watermarked with SynthID and the tool is designed for “original expression,” not direct artist imitation; Lyria 3 is also expanding inside YouTube’s Dream Track for Shorts. Apple’s counter-move this week is the opposite: “Playlist Playground” in the iOS 26.4 beta, which generates curated playlists from existing songs rather than creating new audio.

Why It Matters: This is AI moving from “productivity tool” to culture tool and culture is where attention span (and ad dollars) live. Google wants you generating shareable audio inside a mainstream assistant; Apple wants to keep the labels happy by using AI for discovery, not synthesis. Whoever owns the creation flow (music for Shorts, Reels, stories, memes) gets a sticky distribution loop, and that loop is worth real money even if the tracks are “just for fun.” Also, the copyright line is the whole game here—watermarks and “don’t mimic artists” language aren’t vibes, they’re legal armor.

What to Watch: Watch whether Gemini’s music tool becomes a real creator utility via YouTube Shorts adoption, because “in-app novelty” is nice, but “default soundtrack generator” is a business.
Source: blog.google.com

1. Social Media Under-16 Clampdown Is Going Global

The News: Ireland, India, and the UK are moving toward stricter age limits for social media, riding the slipstream of Australia’s under-16 crackdown. Australia’s law took effect Dec. 10, 2025, and officials say it’s already removed 4.7 million accounts tied to users under 16. Ireland’s Cabinet is expected to back under-16 restrictions as part of a new Digital and AI Strategy (with Ireland holding the EU Council presidency), and officials are signaling they’ll go solo if EU-wide action drags. India’s IT minister says the government is actively talking with platforms about age-based limits, and the UK’s PM says rules are coming within “months,” with a consultation slated for March.

Why It Matters: This is a regulatory shift from “moderate content” to “limit access,” and it hits more than parenting debates. For platforms, age-gating at scale means tougher verification, higher compliance costs, and likely fewer teen users—i.e., less ad inventory and weaker growth optics in certain markets. For families, it could reduce exposure to algorithmic slop, but it also raises privacy tradeoffs if governments and platforms lean on stricter ID checks. For policymakers, it’s becoming a template: once one major country enforces, everyone else asks why they can’t—especially with deepfakes and online harms getting lumped into the same “we need guardrails” bucket.

What to Watch: If Ireland pushes for an EU-coordinated standard during its presidency or actually moves unilaterally, because that sets the tone for the rest of Europe. And watch the platforms’ counter-move: expect “safer teen” product modes, lobbying, and (almost certainly) legal challenges over privacy and feasibility.
Source: economictimes.india.com

2. Oil Pops ~3% as Ukraine-Russia Talks Stall

The News: Oil jumped nearly 3% after Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Geneva ended without a breakthrough. Brent pushed up toward $69 a barrel and WTI toward $64, reversing the prior session’s drop that followed more constructive U.S.-Iran nuclear headlines. On Iran, officials signaled progress on broad “guiding principles,” but also warned a full deal isn’t imminent—keeping the market’s geopolitical risk premium alive.

Why It Matters: Oil is trading the gap between “more supply later” and “disruption sooner.” If Russia-Ukraine talks don’t move, the market stops daydreaming about easier flows of sanctioned Russian crude and goes back to pricing uncertainty. Meanwhile, even with diplomacy inching forward, Iran remains a headline-driven market: the risk isn’t just the deal text, it’s the path there—military posturing and shipping-lane anxiety can reprice crude fast, which bleeds into gas prices, airline costs, and anything that gets delivered by truck.

What to Watch: Watch for confirmation of the next round of Ukraine-Russia talks (and any tangible deliverables), because “we’ll meet again” is not the same as progress. Watch the next U.S.-Iran negotiating update for whether it moves from “principles” to actual draft language.
Source: reuters.com

3. Japan’s $33B Ohio Gas Mega-Plant Is First Big “Tariff Trade Deal” Proof Point

The News: Japan is moving forward with a $33 billion natural-gas power project near Portsmouth, Ohio—billed as the largest gas-fired plant in U.S. history—under the first announced tranche of a broader $550 billion U.S.–Japan trade/investment framework. The project would be operated by SB Energy (a SoftBank subsidiary) and is listed at 9.2 gigawatts of capacity. The same tranche also includes a $2.1B deepwater crude-export terminal off Texas (Sentinel Midstream) and a $600M synthetic industrial diamond facility in Georgia (Element Six).

Why It Matters: This is the “AI power demand meets tariff diplomacy” crossover episode. A 9.2-GW plant is a statement about load growth (data centers, AI, electrification) and a statement about industrial policy: the Trump administration is effectively using tariffs as the stick and giant, concrete projects as the photo-op carrot. For consumers and businesses in the PJM footprint, more firm generation can eventually mean better reliability and less price-spike drama—but only if it actually gets built on time and connects cleanly to the grid. For markets, it’s a tell that “rate-sensitive” infrastructure is back… and it’s being financed with geopolitics attached.

What to Watch: Watch for PJM and state regulators to weigh in once interconnection and permitting details surface, because “announced” and “grid-approved” are two different planets and whether tariff terms tighten or loosen depending on how quickly Japan’s money shows up.
Source: nytimes.com

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