Good Afternoon. A funny thing about “strong markets” is that they can coexist with a weaker paycheck story. Today we’ve got record household wealth on one side and a record-low labor share on the other, plus a reminder that big institutions keep finding ways to make money in any rate regime. Prosperity is up. Broadly shared prosperity is…running late. Let’s get into it.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Stocks Push Higher on “Soft-but-Not-Broken” Jobs Data

The News: U.S. stocks rose Friday, Jan. 9, 2026, after a mixed December jobs report showed slower hiring but a slightly lower unemployment rate, keeping the soft-landing narrative alive. The Labor Department reported +50,000 nonfarm payrolls in December and unemployment at 4.4%, with October and November revised down by a combined 76,000; 2025 ended with 584,000 total job gains. Investors also tracked a closely watched Supreme Court tariff case, but no tariff opinion was issued Friday, extending the uncertainty. In single stocks, Oklo and Vistra jumped after Meta signed long-dated nuclear power deals and backed new reactor development to meet data-center/AI electricity demand.

Why It Matters: This is the market’s preferred combo: fewer jobs (which can cool inflation pressure and keep rate-cut hopes alive) without a spike in unemployment (which would scream recession). The bigger backdrop is “low-hire, low-fire” stagnation, good for markets in the short run, trickier for workers over time, while the unresolved tariff case is a live wire for corporate margins, pricing, and the government’s fiscal math. And Meta’s nuclear moves are another sign that Big Tech is treating power procurement as strategy, not utilities paperwork.

What to Watch: How markets reprice Fed expectations into the late-January policy meeting, soft payrolls helped keep rate-cut talk alive, but “one print” doesn’t make a trend. On tariffs, watch the Supreme Court calendar (the next opinions date matters as much as the eventual ruling), since the market is clearly trading with a legal asterisk. And in AI infrastructure, watch whether Meta’s nuclear template spreads to other hyperscalers, the new arms race isn’t just chips; it’s megawatts.
Source: wsj.com

2. Wages Shrink as a Share of GDP, Even as Americans Get Richer on Paper

The News: In Q3 2025, workers’ slice of U.S. output fell to a record-low 53.8% (from 54.6% in Q2), even as productivity surged: nonfarm productivity rose 4.9% annualized and unit labor costs fell 1.9%. At the same time, household net worth hit a record $181.6 trillion (up $6.0T from $175.6T), driven mostly by markets, equity holdings rose about $5.5T as the S&P 500 gained 7.8% and the Nasdaq 100 rose 11%+ during the quarter.

Why It Matters: This is the “K-shaped” economy in two data points: paychecks are losing ground in the GDP pie while asset owners get the upside of a strong market. That gap is baked into who owns what, Fed distribution data shows the top 1% held 31% of total net worth as of Q2 2025, and they also own a disproportionate share of equities, which are doing most of the wealth heavy lifting. For policymakers and markets, it’s a tension point: strong productivity is great, but if the gains don’t reach wages, consumption growth leans harder on higher-income households and asset prices, two things that don’t always cooperate.

What to Watch: Whether productivity stays high and wage growth re-accelerates (the “good” version), or whether AI/automation keeps pushing output up while labor’s share drifts lower (the “politics gets loud” version). Also watch the next quarters of Flow of Funds data to see if wealth growth continues to come mostly from stocks rather than housing because “record net worth” is comforting right up until you realize it doesn’t pay the grocery bill.
Source: bloomberg.com

3. Tariffs Become Uncle Sam’s New Favorite Tax

The News: In the first three months of fiscal 2026 (October–December 2025), the U.S. took in $91B from tariffs versus $81B from corporate income taxes, an unusual flip that underscores how central import duties have become to federal receipts under the current trade regime. Tariff collections have been running around $30B a month, and estimates put the current effective tariff rate in the teens.

Why It Matters: More tariff revenue can make deficits look better on paper, but it’s a strange “win”: tariffs often show up as higher input costs, pressure on margins, and eventual price passthrough, while also potentially shrinking corporate tax collections as profits get squeezed. If the Supreme Court rules the administration overreached using IEEPA authority, the government could be on the hook for massive refunds (Reuters pegs the potential tab around $150B), which would turn a budget tailwind into a fiscal boomerang.

What to Watch: The Supreme Court is expected to issue rulings on January 14, 2026, with the legality of the IEEPA-based tariffs among the biggest market-moving questions, watch not just the outcome, but how refunds would work in practice and whether the White House pivots to other tariff authorities to keep the revenue stream alive. (Nothing says “stable planning environment” like budgeting with a legal asterisk.)
Source: wsj.com

4. Big Banks Head Into Earnings Week With Record Vibes

The News: America’s six biggest banks are expected to post about $157 billion in combined profit for 2025, their second-best year on record, as dealmaking and trading snapped back after the drought. Earnings kick off with JPMorgan on Tuesday, Jan. 13, then Bank of America, Citi, and Wells Fargo on Wednesday, Jan. 14, followed by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on Thursday, Jan. 15. The tailwinds: global M&A hit $5.1 trillion in 2025 (+42%) and global investment-banking revenue rose 15% to nearly $103B, per Dealogic/LSEG data cited by Reuters.

Why It Matters: This is the bullish bank setup: more deals, more trading, and (so far) an economy that hasn’t cracked. But the consumer backdrop is quietly getting pricier, CFPB data shows consumers paid $160B in credit-card interest in 2024 (up from $105B in 2022) plus $31.3B in fees, with average general-purpose card APR around 25.2%. Add in the late-fee cap fight, Trump’s CFPB moved to scrap the CFPB’s $8 late-fee rule, and a judge ultimately tossed it and you get a market that loves bank profits while households pay the financing bill.

What to Watch: Listen for two things on calls: credit quality (card delinquencies, charge-offs, and whether stress is creeping up outside of prime borrowers) and deal pipelines (are CEOs still signing checks, or just updating PowerPoints?). Also watch how banks talk about costs, especially tech/AI spend, “efficiency” is great until it becomes “we cut too deep and the risk models get weird.”
Source: bloomberg.com

5. One Gene, Most Alzheimer’s Risk

The News: A new paper in npj Dementia (Jan. 9, 2026) analyzing data from ~450,000+ people across multiple cohorts estimates that ~71% to 93% of Alzheimer’s cases are attributable to carrying the common APOE ε3 and/or ε4 variants (depending on the dataset), with ~45% of all-cause dementia attributable to the same variants. The headline twist: ε3, long treated as the “neutral” allele, appears to contribute meaningfully to population-level disease burden when compared against the rare low-risk baseline of ε2/ε2. Researchers and outside experts stress this is not destiny, even in the highest-risk genetic groups, many people never develop Alzheimer’s, but it’s a striking reframing of how concentrated the genetic contribution may be.

Why It Matters: This shifts the drug-development conversation from “Alzheimer’s is too complex” to “there’s a dominant biological highway we may be under-targeting.” If APOE-related pathways explain that much of the population burden, therapies that safely modulate APOE function (rather than just clearing amyloid) could have outsized payoff and would reshape trial design, screening, and prevention strategies. Not to mention company balance sheets.

What to Watch: Whether more companies pivot R&D toward APOE-targeting approaches (or downstream pathways) and whether regulators and health systems warm to broader genetic risk stratification. Also watch the consumer layer: as this research circulates, demand for APOE testing will rise, so expect louder debates about counseling, privacy, and what you’re supposed to do with a risk signal that isn’t a diagnosis.
Source: nature.com

1. Greenland’s “Annexation Rally” Hits

The News: A handful of Greenland-linked stocks are ripping higher as investors try to front-run President Trump’s renewed push to acquire the Arctic territory. Nuuk-based Bank of Greenland has jumped as much as 42% year-to-date, including a 33% pop in a week, while rare-earth plays tied to Greenland have also rallied on speculation about U.S.-backed investment and supply-chain reshoring.

Why It Matters: This is geopolitics showing up in markets in real time: the moment Washington starts framing Greenland as a national-security priority (and even floats “all options”), capital starts pricing in defense spend, infrastructure funding, and a potential critical-minerals land grab. It also has a familiar smell—thin liquidity + viral headlines can turn “strategic asset” into “meme asset” fast, which is great until it isn’t.

What to Watch: Next catalyst is diplomacy: Reuters reports the White House has held active discussions on a Greenland purchase, and officials have even discussed lump-sum payments to Greenlanders (figures floated ranged $10,000 to $100,000 per person) while Denmark and Greenland keep saying “not for sale.” Watch next week’s Rubio/Danish talks for any shift from rhetoric to terms, because markets can’t price “maybe” forever.
Source: finance.yahoo.com

2. Argentina Pays Back the U.S.

The News: Argentina has fully repaid the $2.5 billion it drew from a $20 billion U.S. Treasury currency swap line put in place in 2025, according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Argentina’s central bank. Bessent said the repayment generated “tens of millions” of dollars in profit for U.S. taxpayers and that the Treasury no longer holds pesos in the Exchange Stabilization Fund tied to the deal. The swap, unusual in modern use of the ESF, was designed to stabilize Argentina ahead of its October 2025 midterms and became politically controversial in Washington even as markets cheered Milei’s post-election momentum.

Why It Matters: For Argentina, repaying early is a credibility play: it signals improved access to dollars (or at least improved confidence) at a moment when the country’s financing needs and reserve position remain fragile. For the U.S., it’s a rare example of the Treasury’s ESF acting like a lender of last resort to a foreign government—without Congress—and then claiming a positive return, which will likely embolden supporters and inflame critics at the same time. The bigger market takeaway: this reduces one near-term tail risk for Argentina’s peso and bonds, but it doesn’t erase the structural problem of recurring external funding gaps.

What to Watch: Where the repayment funds came from and what it cost (new borrowing vs. reserve drawdown), plus Argentina’s next refinancing hurdles, since recent reporting also points to stopgap financing like a $3 billion repo arranged with banks ahead of debt payments. On the U.S. side, watch for oversight: CRS has already flagged the unusual ESF use, and Hill scrutiny could shape whether this becomes a repeatable tool or a one-off.
Source: reuters.com

3. VW Passes Tesla (Outside China)

The News: Volkswagen Group overtook Tesla in EV sales outside China through January–November 2025, selling 1.133 million units (+60.3% YoY) versus Tesla’s 927,000 (-8.3% YoY), according to SNE Research data released Jan. 9, 2026. The overall non-China EV market reached 6.853 million units (+26.4%), with Europe doing the heavy lifting (3.745 million, +32.8%) while North America essentially flatlined (1.651 million, +0.3%). Tesla’s slide was led by softer demand for its core models (Model Y -4.8%, Model 3 -7.5%) and a sharp drop in premium models (Model S -55.2%, Model X -36.1%), while Hyundai Motor Group held third with about 566,000 units (+12.5%).

Why It Matters: This is the clearest snapshot yet of an EV market that’s no longer moving in one direction globally: Europe is still expanding, but the U.S./Canada are behaving like a post-incentive market where demand gets very price-sensitive very fast. For investors, VW’s gain underscores the advantage of a broad platform-and-brand lineup (mass market to premium) when growth shifts from “category adoption” to “model competition.” For Tesla, two consecutive years of declining volumes raises the stakes on refresh cadence, pricing strategy, and non-auto narratives where “future optionality” plays better when the core business isn’t shrinking.

What to Watch: Whether North America re-accelerates without broad consumer credits, SNE flags stagnation risk in lower-to-mid tiers, and whether OEMs keep pivoting toward hybrids/EREVs as the bridge strategy. For Tesla specifically, the next hard datapoint is its Q4 2025 earnings on Jan. 28, 2026, where guidance will matter more than the rearview mirror. And for VW, watch whether Europe’s momentum holds if regulators keep softening timelines, because policy uncertainty is now part of the demand forecast, not just the footnote.
Source: sneresearch.com

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