Good Afternoon. Ten straight days of gains for the Nasdaq 100. The last time that happened, "Squid Game" hadn't premiered yet and you could fill up your tank for $3.20. The streak says something real about market psychology right now: investors have stopped pricing the Iran war as an existential threat and started pricing it as a solvable problem. Even the blockade is starting to look less like a war footing and more like a negotiating position. If the ceasefire holds through its April 22 expiration and Pakistan brokers Round 2, this market looks like it has more room to run.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. JPMorgan Posts the Biggest Trading Quarter in American Banking History -- Record $11.6 Billion

The News: JPMorgan Chase reported Q1 2026 net income of $16.5 billion on managed revenue of $50.5 billion, beating the consensus $5.45 EPS estimate with $5.94 -- an 8.3% surprise to the upside. The star of the quarter was the Corporate & Investment Bank, where trading revenue hit an all-time record of $11.6 billion, up 20% year-over-year and nearly $2 billion above the prior record. Fixed income, currencies, and commodities (FICC) revenue surged 21% to $7.1 billion, and equities trading jumped 17% to $4.5 billion. Investment banking fees rose 28% to $2.9 billion. Return on equity: 19%. Return on tangible common equity: 23%.

Why It Matters: This is the quarter that proved war-driven volatility is the single most powerful earnings catalyst on Wall Street. Every dollar that oil whipsaws, every headline that sends the VIX spiking, every flight-to-quality trade -- it all flows through JPMorgan's trading desk. CEO Jamie Dimon acknowledged the economy faces "an increasingly complex set of risks," but the numbers tell you that complexity is JPMorgan's best product. For investors, the read-through to Morgan Stanley (tomorrow) and Bank of America (tomorrow) is straightforward: if your bank has a world-class trading operation, Q1 was a gift.

What to Watch: The one cautionary note: JPMorgan cut its full-year net interest income guidance from $104.5 billion to $103 billion. That's a signal that the lending side of banking -- mortgages, credit cards, commercial loans -- is feeling the squeeze even as trading prints records. The bifurcation between "Wall Street bank" and "Main Street bank" is widening.

Source: Bloomberg / Zacks

2. March PPI Comes in Soft -- and It Confirms the Inflation Spike Is Energy, Not Structural

The News: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index rose 0.5% month-over-month in March, matching February's pace and coming in well below the 1.1% Wall Street had expected. Year-over-year, PPI hit 4.0% -- the highest since February 2023, but the composition tells the real story. Final demand energy surged 8.5% (gasoline +15.7%, diesel +42%, jet fuel up sharply). Final demand services? Flat. Zero. Core PPI (ex food, energy, trade services) rose just 0.2%, decelerating from 0.5% in both January and February.

Why It Matters: This is the second consecutive data release -- after Friday's CPI -- that confirms the same story: headline inflation is hot because of the Iran war's energy shock, but underlying price pressures are actually cooling. For the Fed, this is the most important distinction in economics right now. It means rate cuts remain on the table if and when oil normalizes. For investors, the soft PPI is why bonds rallied and yields fell today. For consumers, it's mixed: your gas bill is painful, but your grocery bill and your rent aren't accelerating.

What to Watch: Whether the April PPI (released next month) shows the energy component cooling as oil drops back below $95. If the blockade ends and oil settles in the $80s, the entire inflation scare unwinds in a single month.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

3. The Nasdaq 100 Logs Its 10th Straight Winning Day -- the Longest Streak Since 2021

The News: The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.9% Tuesday, extending its winning streak to 10 consecutive trading sessions -- the longest since late 2021. During the streak, the tech-heavy index has gained more than 12%, effectively erasing every loss accumulated since the Iran war began on February 28. The S&P 500 is also back to pre-war levels, having rallied 0.7% today. The VIX fell below 19 for the first time since the conflict began.

Why It Matters: The streak is driven by a convergence of three forces: TSMC's record earnings last week confirmed AI demand is accelerating, the earnings season is off to a blowout start (Goldman, JPMorgan, BlackRock all beating), and the peace trade is building momentum as oil crashes. For investors, the message is clear: the market has decided the war is a temporary disruption to a fundamentally strong economy, not a structural break. The VIX below 19 is the clearest signal yet -- the fear premium has essentially been erased.

What to Watch: Whether Netflix earnings Thursday can keep the momentum going. The streak will face its biggest test if the April 22 ceasefire expires without a Round 2 of talks. For now, the tape is saying: buy the dip, the dip is over.

Source: WSJ / Barron's

4. Oil Crashes 6.6% Back Below $93 -- the Blockade and Diplomacy Are Coexisting

The News: WTI crude plunged 6.6% to $92.49 and Brent fell to ~$97.30 on Tuesday, reversing most of Monday's blockade-driven spike. The catalyst: reports from CBS News and Bloomberg that back-channel engagement between U.S. and Iranian officials has continued since the Islamabad talks collapsed, with one official telling CBS there is "forward motion on trying to get to an agreement." Pakistan is actively pushing to schedule a second round of talks before the April 22 ceasefire expiration.

Why It Matters: Yesterday, oil was $104 on blockade fears. Today it's $92 on peace hopes. That 12% round-trip in 48 hours tells you everything about this market: it's trading on diplomacy, not fundamentals. The blockade is real -- the Navy is physically in the Strait -- but oil is pricing in the expectation that it's temporary. For investors, the energy trade is now a pure geopolitical bet. For consumers, the good news is that if Round 2 happens and produces even a framework, gas prices could drop 30-40 cents within weeks.

What to Watch: The April 22 ceasefire deadline. If it expires without an extension or a Round 2 announcement, oil reverses hard back above $100 and every peace trade in the market unwinds.

Source: CBS News / MarketWatch

5. The Tale of Two Banks: BlackRock's Record Inflows vs. Wells Fargo's Lending Miss

The News: The rest of the earnings roster Tuesday painted a split portrait of American finance. BlackRock crushed estimates with adjusted EPS of $12.53 (vs. $11.48 expected), record quarterly net inflows of $130 billion, and AUM of $13.9 trillion -- with net income surging 46% year-over-year to $2.2 billion. Citigroup also beat. But Wells Fargo missed across its primary income streams, with lending estimates falling short and shares dropping sharply. Johnson & Johnson provided the non-bank highlight, beating with $24.1 billion in revenue (+10% YoY) and raising full-year guidance to $100.8 billion.

Why It Matters: The bank earnings are telling two different stories about the economy. Trading desks and asset managers (Goldman, JPMorgan, BlackRock) are thriving because volatility drives volume and fees. But traditional lenders like Wells Fargo are struggling because consumers are pulling back -- higher gas prices, higher mortgage rates, and record-low confidence are all hitting loan demand. For investors, the lesson is: not all banks are created equal in a war economy. Own the ones with trading revenue; be cautious on the ones dependent on consumer lending.

What to Watch: Morgan Stanley and Bank of America report Wednesday. If Morgan Stanley (heavy trading exposure) beats and Bank of America (heavy consumer exposure) misses, it confirms the pattern and the market will price in a more durable split between Wall Street and Main Street.

Source: Investing.com / Bloomberg

1. The UK Refuses to Enforce the U.S. Blockade -- and Allied Unity on Iran Is Starting to Crack

The News: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced Tuesday that the United Kingdom would not enforce the American naval blockade of Iran's ports. Speaking to the BBC, Starmer said that U.K. minesweepers and anti-drone systems would continue operating in the region, but British military assets would not be used to block Iranian shipping. The British Defence Ministry separately said it had deployed additional military planners to U.S. Central Command to "explore options for making the Strait of Hormuz accessible and safe once hostilities have ceased" -- a subtle signal that London is planning for post-war, not participating in the current escalation.

Why It Matters: The UK was the one NATO ally most likely to support the blockade, given its special relationship with Washington and its existing naval presence in the Gulf. Starmer's refusal is a diplomatic blow for Trump and signals that the blockade is an American operation, not a coalition one. For markets, the implication is that the blockade's enforcement will be limited by U.S. naval capacity alone -- which is significant but not total. For the diplomatic track, it adds pressure on Washington to resolve this quickly before allied frustration becomes a liability.

What to Watch: Whether France, Australia, or other U.S. allies follow the UK's lead. A broader allied rejection of the blockade would weaken its economic bite and give Iran more room to maneuver.

Source: CBS News

2. Pakistan Pushes for Round 2 Before the April 22 Ceasefire Expires -- and Both Sides Are Quietly Talking

The News: Pakistani officials confirmed Tuesday that they are in active contact with both Washington and Tehran, pushing to schedule a second round of peace talks before the current ceasefire expires around April 22. CBS News reported that engagement between the U.S. delegation and Iranian leaders has continued since the weekend's failed round, with one official describing "forward motion." Iran's chief negotiator said Tehran "had not expected an agreement in a single round" and that contacts were "expected to continue." The primary objective is securing a ceasefire extension.

Why It Matters: This is why oil crashed $12 today. The market isn't pricing the blockade at face value -- it's pricing the expectation that both sides want a deal badly enough to keep talking despite the theatrical escalation. The fact that back-channel communications survived the blockade announcement is the most bullish diplomatic signal since the ceasefire itself. For investors, the April 22 deadline is now the single most important date on the calendar.

What to Watch: Whether a formal Round 2 date is announced this week. If Pakistan can get both delegations to commit to returning to Islamabad before April 22, expect oil to break below $90 and equities to extend the rally. If the week ends without an announcement, anxiety builds fast.

Source: Al Jazeera / CBS News

3. Global Markets Rally as the Peace Trade Goes Worldwide

The News: European and Asian markets joined the American rally Tuesday, with the Stoxx Europe 600 rising 0.8%, Japan's Nikkei gaining 1.2%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 0.9%. The global bid was driven by the same forces lifting U.S. stocks: oil's retreat below $95, signs of continued U.S.-Iran engagement, and strong bank earnings. The dollar strengthened modestly, gold dipped 0.5%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield eased to 4.30% from 4.34% as the soft PPI data eased inflation concerns.

Why It Matters: The Iran war premium is being unwound globally, not just in New York. European airlines, Asian manufacturers, and emerging market currencies are all benefiting from the prospect of cheaper energy. For global investors, the risk is asymmetric: if Round 2 happens and oil drops to $80, emerging markets have the most upside. If talks collapse and oil hits $110, the same markets have the most downside. The trade is binary, and today the world chose the optimistic side.

What to Watch: Whether the Bank of Japan's Ueda signals anything about rate hikes this week. Monday's 30-year-high JGB yield is still reverberating, and a hawkish BoJ would be the one thing that could disrupt the global risk-on mood.

Source: Bloomberg

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A: The living room.

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"If your 401(k) is loaded with company stock that's tripled in value since you bought it, NUA could save you tens of thousands in taxes at retirement. The catch: you have to take a lump-sum distribution of the entire plan in a single tax year -- and in a year where your 401(k) just got whipsawed by an oil war, the timing math gets complicated."

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