Good Afternoon. Iran's foreign minister just said the words the entire global economy has been waiting to hear: "The Strait of Hormuz is completely open." Oil crashed 13% in minutes, the S&P 500 topped 7,100 for the first time ever, and the Dow surged over 1,000 points. The war trade is unwinding at warp speed, and Wall Street is betting the end is near.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Oil Crashes 13% in Its Biggest Single-Day Drop Since April 8 -- and the War Premium Is Evaporating in Real Time

The News: Crude oil suffered its steepest plunge since the ceasefire crash on April 8 after Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" to commercial shipping for the duration of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. WTI crude fell roughly 13% to around $82 per barrel, while Brent dropped below $90 for the first time since early March. The move erased more than two months of war-driven price gains in a matter of hours.

Why It Matters: The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of the world's crude supply, and its closure has been the single biggest driver of global inflation since the war began in late February. Today's crash doesn't just mean cheaper oil -- it means cheaper gasoline, cheaper jet fuel, cheaper shipping, and cheaper food. For consumers, relief at the pump could arrive within days. For investors, the entire "war trade" -- long oil, short airlines, long defense stocks -- is unwinding fast. Brent is still above its pre-war level of roughly $73, but the gap is closing.

What to Watch: Whether tankers actually start moving. Iran said vessels must follow a "coordinated route" through the strait, and Trump emphasized that the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports will remain "in full force" until a permanent deal is signed. If commercial traffic flows freely over the weekend, oil could test $80. If there's any interference, the bounce back could be violent.

Source: Bloomberg

2. The S&P 500 Tops 7,100 for the First Time and the Dow Surges 1,000 Points -- Wall Street's Best Day Since the Ceasefire

The News: Stocks exploded higher on Friday as the Hormuz reopening sent shockwaves through every asset class. The S&P 500 surged roughly 1.85% to top 7,100 for the first time, setting a new all-time high. The Dow rallied over 1,000 points -- its best single-day gain since the April 8 ceasefire -- and the Nasdaq Composite extended its winning streak to 13 consecutive days, the longest since 2009. The S&P 500 is now on pace for its largest three-week percentage gain since 2020.

Why It Matters: This isn't just a relief rally -- it's a regime change in market psychology. The CNN Fear & Greed Index leapt from 22.6 (Extreme Fear) to 63.3 (Greed) in a single session, one of the fastest sentiment reversals on record. The S&P 500 has now erased the entirety of its Iran war drawdown and then some, gaining more than 10% in three weeks. For investors, the breadth of today's move matters: it's not just tech carrying the tape. Falling oil prices help airlines, retailers, manufacturers, and transports. The rally is broadening.

What to Watch: Whether the gains hold into the close and whether the weekend peace talks produce a framework deal. The April 22 ceasefire expires Tuesday, and Trump has signaled he won't extend it. If talks collapse, the Hormuz reopening could prove temporary and today's rally could reverse just as fast as it arrived.

Source: WSJ

3. Netflix Misses on Q2 Guidance and Co-Founder Reed Hastings Announces He's Leaving the Board

The News: Netflix reported Q1 revenue of $12.25 billion, up 16% year-over-year and slightly above the $12.18 billion estimate, but the headline was overshadowed by two pieces of bad news. First, Q2 guidance disappointed: revenue of $12.57 billion (below the $12.63 billion consensus) and earnings of $0.78 per share (below the $0.84 estimate). Second, co-founder and chairman Reed Hastings announced he will not seek re-election to the board when his term expires in June, ending a nearly 30-year run at the company he built from a DVD-by-mail startup. Shares fell roughly 10%.

Why It Matters: Netflix is still growing -- Q1 revenue beat estimates and the company's ad-supported tier is on track to generate $3 billion in 2026, double last year. But the market was expecting more, especially after Netflix received a $2.8 billion termination fee from the abandoned Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition. Hastings' departure is more symbolic than operational (he stepped down as CEO in 2023), but losing a founder from the board sends a signal that the company's pioneer era is officially over. For investors, Netflix's 10% drop on a day when the Nasdaq rallied 1.5% is a stark reminder that even in a bull market, execution matters.

What to Watch: Netflix's ad-tier trajectory is the new growth story. The company needs to prove it can double ad revenue to $3 billion this year while absorbing higher content costs from the war-driven inflation spike. International subscriber growth -- disrupted by the Iran conflict -- will be the next bellwether.

Source: Reuters

4. Oracle Caps Its Best Week in Months -- Up 29% -- as AI Cloud Partnerships and a Tech Rally Fuel the Surge

The News: Oracle shares rose again on Friday, capping a week in which the stock gained roughly 29% -- its best weekly performance in months. The rally was fueled by an expanded multicloud networking partnership with Amazon Web Services, a new deal with Bloom Energy to power AI data centers with fuel cells, and the introduction of new AI software products. Oracle wasn't alone: the entire software sector ripped higher this week, with Adobe up 6%, Salesforce up 5%, and cybersecurity names like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto gaining over 6%.

Why It Matters: Oracle has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the "peace trade" in tech. When war fears were at their peak, software stocks were the most punished sector in the market -- Oracle was down more than 30% from its January highs at one point. Now, with geopolitical risk fading and AI demand surging, the sector is reclaiming lost ground at a startling pace. Oracle's AWS partnership is particularly significant because it positions the company as a neutral multicloud player, not just a niche database vendor. For investors, the question is whether a 29% weekly move creates an opportunity or a trap.

What to Watch: Oracle carries more than $120 billion in net debt, and its revenue is concentrated in a few large enterprise accounts. If the peace trade reverses or AI spending slows, the downside could be just as sharp. Watch for next week's earnings from SAP and ServiceNow to gauge whether the software rally has legs.

Source: CNBC

5. Mortgage Rates Drop to a 4-Week Low as Oil's Collapse and Falling Treasury Yields Ease Borrowing Costs

The News: The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell seven basis points to 6.30% for the week ending April 17, according to Freddie Mac -- the second consecutive weekly decline and the lowest level in four weeks. The 15-year fixed rate dropped nine basis points to 5.65%. The 10-year Treasury yield, which heavily influences mortgage pricing, slipped to 4.288% from 4.335% as investors piled into bonds on the back of falling oil prices and rising peace hopes.

Why It Matters: Mortgage rates had spiked above 6.8% just weeks ago as the Iran war sent inflation expectations soaring. Now, with oil crashing from $112 to $82 in a single session and the war premium fading, the entire rate picture is shifting. For homebuyers, a 50-basis-point drop in rates on a $400,000 home saves roughly $120 per month. Four lenders are now advertising rates below 6% APR. For the broader economy, falling rates are the clearest signal yet that the war's inflation shock may be transitory -- exactly what the Fed has been hoping for.

What to Watch: Next week brings Existing Home Sales data and remarks from Fed Governor Michael Barr and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee. If the Hormuz opening holds and oil stays below $90, mortgage rates could break below 6% nationally for the first time since early March.

Source: Yahoo Finance

6. Iran's Foreign Minister Declares the Strait of Hormuz "Completely Open" -- but Trump Says the U.S. Blockade Will Remain "In Full Force"

The News: Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced on social media Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is "completely open" to commercial shipping "for the duration of the ceasefire." The statement came hours after the 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire took effect Thursday evening. Araghchi stipulated that all vessels must follow a "coordinated route" designated by Iran's maritime authorities. President Trump immediately responded by thanking Iran for the gesture -- but emphasized that the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports would remain "in full force" until a formal peace agreement is signed.

Why It Matters: The Strait of Hormuz has been the war's economic ground zero. Its closure disrupted roughly 20% of the world's crude oil and a similar share of global LNG supply, sending energy prices spiraling and stoking inflation worldwide. Iran's reopening is a major de-escalation signal, but it's not unconditional -- the "coordinated route" requirement gives Tehran a lever to restrict traffic again, and the 10-day ceasefire could expire without a deal. Trump's refusal to lift the blockade ensures that Iran's own oil exports remain locked down. For the global economy, this is a ceasefire for shipping, not a peace deal for oil.

What to Watch: How many tankers actually transit the strait over the next 48 hours. Before the war, roughly 17-21 million barrels per day moved through Hormuz. If traffic resumes at even 50% of normal levels, the psychological effect on oil markets will be enormous.

Source: CNBC

7. Macron and Starmer Convene 40+ Nations in Paris to Secure Freedom of Navigation Through Hormuz After the War

The News: French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer hosted an international summit in Paris on Friday, convening representatives from over 40 nations to address long-term navigation security in the Strait of Hormuz. The summit -- notably held without U.S. participation -- focused on establishing a multilateral framework to guarantee freedom of passage through the strait regardless of future conflicts. Macron welcomed Iran's reopening of Hormuz and announced a follow-up meeting in London next week to formalize commitments.

Why It Matters: The Paris summit is a signal that America's allies are no longer willing to let the Strait of Hormuz be held hostage by any single conflict. By organizing without the U.S., Macron and Starmer are staking out an independent position: the world's most critical shipping lane should be governed by international norms, not bilateral war dynamics. For global markets, a permanent multilateral guarantee on Hormuz would remove the single biggest geopolitical risk premium in energy markets. For the U.S., it's a subtle rebuke -- European allies are building a post-war framework while Washington is still focused on the deal.

What to Watch: Whether the London follow-up produces a binding framework or just another communique. The key test is whether Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE -- who have significant leverage over regional shipping -- sign on to a multilateral guarantee.

Source: AP News

8. Trump Says Iran Has Agreed to "Almost Everything" and Signals Weekend Peace Talks Could Happen in Pakistan

The News: President Trump said Friday that the U.S. is "very close" to reaching a long-term peace agreement with Iran, claiming Tehran has agreed to "almost everything" in negotiations. Trump signaled that the next round of direct face-to-face talks could take place as early as this weekend in Pakistan, following last Saturday's Islamabad summit that ended without a deal. The two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran expires Tuesday, and Trump has indicated he does not plan to extend it, raising the stakes for a breakthrough.

Why It Matters: Trump's optimism is backed by action: the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, the Hormuz reopening, and Pakistan's army chief reportedly holding meetings with both Iran's foreign minister and its military leadership in Tehran this week. But significant gaps remain on three core issues: Iran's nuclear program, compensation for wartime damages, and the permanent status of the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts note Iran may be in a stronger negotiating position than Washington acknowledges -- the reopening of Hormuz was a calculated concession, not a capitulation. For markets, the distinction between "very close" and "done" is worth billions.

What to Watch: Whether talks are formally announced for Saturday or Sunday. Pakistan's role as host and mediator has been critical, and the army chief's presence in Tehran suggests the groundwork is being laid. If Trump travels to Pakistan for a signing ceremony, the war may be over. If talks stall, the ceasefire expires Tuesday and everything -- Hormuz included -- could snap back.

Source: Reuters

Q: What's green and sings?

A: Elvis Parsley.

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The additional return an investor demands above a risk-free rate (like U.S. Treasuries) to compensate for the uncertainty of a particular investment. In markets, risk premiums rise when fear increases and fall when confidence returns.

"When Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, the risk premium that had been baked into oil prices for the past seven weeks evaporated in hours -- sending crude down 13% and reminding traders that geopolitical fear has a price, and that price can vanish overnight."

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