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Good Afternoon. On this day in 1994, Friends premiered on NBC. The six roommates would eventually keep viewers coming back for ten seasons, but no one could know the show's staying power from its first episode.
Wall Street is getting a similar lesson in looking past the opening scene. Oil dipped, then rebounded; stocks hovered near records; and today's earnings showed that profit and demand don't always move together. The next clues will come from energy supplies, borrowing costs, and whether companies can turn attention into durable business.
—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor
💰 Markets
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🔍 Today’s Vibe
🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥
Auto parts and AI infrastructure: AutoZone's profit held up after a slow start to its quarter, while Alibaba's chip rollout kept investors focused on who can supply the next wave of computing demand.
🥶 What’s Not: 🥶
Fuel-sensitive consumers and long-term borrowers: Oil's morning relief didn't last, and a 10-year Treasury yield near 5% still makes big purchases and refinancing harder to justify.
🔢 Big number: 8,031 — AutoZone's global store count at the end of August, a reminder that expansion and same-store demand tell different parts of the retail story.
Elon's new company is private. These 3 tickers aren't.
The next Apple may already exist. Insider sources say Elon has spent two years building a secret device inside Tesla's facilities — one he claims will be "10x bigger than the largest product in history."
There's just one problem: the company is private, and unless you know Elon personally, you can't buy a single share. That was true until Guardian's research team found three public ticker symbols sitting in the launch supply chain.
Click here to see all 3 tickers, free of charge.
You won't hear these names on CNBC — Wall Street hasn't published a word on the connection. But when the launch hits September 21, that quiet ends.
Some are already calling this the biggest opportunity since AI. For anyone who missed Apple before the iPhone, this may be a second look at that kind of setup.
🇺🇸 Stateside
New York Stock Exchange Photo credit
Oil changes the market's mood twice
Tuesday's stock market looked calm on the surface, but energy prices were still setting the pace. Brent crude briefly slipped below $98 a barrel before climbing back over $100, showing how quickly a little optimism about supply can fade when Middle East shipping remains uncertain.
The news: By early afternoon, the S&P 500 was roughly unchanged, the Dow was down close to 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up about 0.3%. The 10-year Treasury yield edged to 4.98% from 4.96% Monday. That mix doesn't suggest a decisive new direction; it suggests investors are testing whether yesterday's relief rally can survive another round of expensive energy and credit.
Big picture: An index near its record isn't the same as an economy free of pressure. If oil shipments stay constrained or bond yields climb again, household budgets and corporate financing plans could face another squeeze even while technology shares hold up.
Source: Associated Press
AutoZone finds profit in a slow lane
AutoZone's latest quarter is a useful reminder that a retailer can improve earnings without seeing customers rush through the doors. Sales at stores open at least a year rose only 1.5% companywide, while management said the first two months were difficult before business improved.
The news: Quarterly earnings reached $56.05 a share and annual sales totaled $20.3 billion. The chain ended August with 8,031 stores across the United States, Mexico, and Brazil. Expansion can grow total revenue, but the modest comparable-store increase shows the existing footprint isn't immune to consumer pressure.
What’s next: Drivers may keep older cars longer when new vehicles and loans cost more, which can help parts demand. Yet AutoZone still needs steadier traffic and profitable inventory management; investors shouldn't treat one strong earnings result as proof the consumer has stopped watching every repair bill.
Source: AutoZone
AI shopping runs into a locked door
Meta's Muse assistant promises to make shopping easier, but Amazon isn't ready to hand another company's agent the keys to its storefront. The dispute is less about a single checkout and more about who owns the customer relationship, product discovery, and purchase data.
The news: Amazon blocked Muse from browsing and buying on its platform less than two weeks after the agent launched. That limits one of the most practical uses of consumer AI just as people test whether an assistant can finish a task rather than merely recommend one; it's a real-world obstacle.
Bottom line: An agent can be excellent at finding the right item and still fail if retailers won't let it complete the purchase. Watch for negotiated access, retailer-built assistants, or payment arrangements; the business model may be decided by permissions and economics before model quality settles the contest.
Source: Axios
MillerKnoll's profit needs a second look
Office-furniture maker MillerKnoll reported a bigger quarterly profit even as revenue declined. That combination doesn't automatically signal a stronger demand environment; it asks readers to separate cost discipline from new orders and sustainable growth.
The news: Revenue fell 3.4% from a year earlier to $923.4 million, while net income rose to $26.6 million from $20.2 million. Adjusted earnings were $0.53 a share, and the company guided next-quarter sales to $972 million–$1.012 billion. The forecast implies a possible improvement, but it hasn't arrived in the reported quarter yet.
Big picture: Companies can protect margins through pricing, mix, or spending cuts while customers remain cautious. Investors should watch whether workplace orders and retail demand catch up with the profit improvement; otherwise, earnings growth won't have as much room to run as the headline suggests.
Source: RTTNews
The Fed looks under the Treasury market's hood
The Federal Reserve's work doesn't end with setting a policy rate. As Treasury trading changes, its plumbing has to keep short-term rates under control and cash available when market conditions shift.
The news: New York Fed President John Williams told a Treasury-market conference that effective implementation rests on interest-rate control, low opportunity costs for holding reserves, and an elastic supply of reserves. He pointed to earlier changes in repo trading and the Fed's overnight reverse-repo facility as examples of policy tools adapting to a changing market.
What’s next: The message isn't a new rate decision. It is a warning that market structure can change how smoothly any decision reaches borrowers and investors. With Treasury yields near 5%, traders will watch clearing, liquidity, and funding conditions as closely as the next inflation number.
Source: New York Fed
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🌎 Around The World
European Union flags Photo credit
Europe and Manila move closer to a deal
The European Union and the Philippines have reached substantial agreement on a free-trade pact, but the announcement isn't the same as a finished, ratified treaty. Both sides are trying to build a wider set of commercial relationships while trade tensions with larger partners persist.
The news: The preliminary agreement follows negotiations aimed at deepening ties between Europe's 27-country bloc and the Southeast Asian economy. Annual two-way trade is already nearly €30 billion, according to EU negotiators. Officials still have detailed work to complete before businesses can count on any new tariff or market-access terms.
Bottom line: Supply-chain diversification takes signed rules, implementation, and actual investment—not just a handshake. Exporters should watch the final tariff schedules and standards, while investors shouldn't confuse a promising negotiation milestone with revenue that can be booked today.
Source: European Commission
Alibaba builds more of its own AI stack
Alibaba doesn't want to depend entirely on outside suppliers for the chips and cloud systems behind its AI ambitions. At its Hangzhou conference, it laid out a broader stack spanning proprietary chips, new Qwen models, and agent tools.
The news: Alibaba announced new AI chip technology and said it aims to operate more than 20 gigawatts of global data-center capacity by 2032. It also described future Qwen models potentially scaling to 5 trillion–10 trillion parameters. Those are company plans; they don't prove that demand, power access, and profitability will all arrive on schedule.
Big picture: Vertical integration could lower dependence on constrained foreign hardware and make Alibaba's cloud more attractive to customers. The harder test is whether it can secure electricity, deploy chips at scale, and earn a return on the enormous infrastructure bill while Chinese and U.S. technology rivals keep moving.
Source: Alibaba Cloud
Refinery strikes keep diesel in focus
Ukraine says it damaged two more Russian oil refineries while its president met with the U.S. president. The strikes matter beyond the battlefield because refining capacity turns crude into diesel, and global fuel supply hasn't loosened.
The news: Ukrainian forces targeted facilities in Russia's Samara and Bashkortostan regions, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. President Donald Trump has urged Kyiv to stop hitting energy infrastructure, arguing that the attacks raise diesel prices; Zelenskyy has linked any halt to Russia ending attacks on Ukraine's power grid. Reduced shipments through the Strait of Hormuz add another pressure point.
What’s next: Negotiations may change the pace of attacks, but a diplomatic meeting doesn't repair a refinery or reopen a shipping lane. Businesses that rely on diesel should watch physical supply and transport costs, not just the daily move in a crude-oil benchmark.
Source: Associated Press
🥸 Dad Joke of the Day
Q: How do you catch a squirrel?
A: Climb a tree and act like a nut.
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📖 Vocab Word of the Day
Earnings quality: how well a company's reported profit reflects durable operations and cash generation rather than a temporary boost; a higher number alone doesn't prove demand is stronger.
In a sentence: MillerKnoll's profit rose while sales fell, so investors can't judge earnings quality without asking whether margins and customer orders will hold up.
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