Good Afternoon. Today's data dump told two completely different stories. The March CPI screamed 3.3% year-over-year -- the hottest read since May 2024 -- but strip out the Iran war's energy shock and core inflation actually came in below expectations at 2.6%. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment cratered to a literal all-time low of 47.6, the worst reading in the Michigan survey's 48-year history. Markets shrugged, the Dow dipped, the Nasdaq rallied on a monster TSMC earnings beat, and traders went into the weekend pricing Saturday's Islamabad talks as the only number that really matters.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. March CPI Tripled to 0.9%

The News: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% month-over-month in March -- triple February's 0.3% pace and the hottest monthly read since June 2022. Year-over-year inflation jumped to 3.3% from 2.4%. The driver was unmistakable: energy prices surged 10.9% in a single month, with gasoline up 21.2% and fuel oil up a staggering 30.7%. But the number that actually moved markets was core CPI -- which rose just 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, a tenth below Wall Street's estimate.

Why It Matters: This is the most bifurcated CPI print in years, and the split matters enormously. The headline number reflects the Iran war's energy shock hitting consumer wallets -- gas is at $4.12 a gallon nationally, up from $2.94 before the war. But core inflation, which strips out food and energy, is actually decelerating. For the Fed, that distinction is everything: it means the inflation spike is geopolitical, not structural, and it likely keeps rate cuts on the table if and when oil stabilizes. For consumers, the math is simpler -- the pump hurts, the grocery store is holding steady, and shelter inflation at 3.0% is continuing its slow grind lower.

What to Watch: Whether the 10-year yield stays below 4.58% (its May 2025 peak). If the bond market treats this as a one-time energy pass-through rather than an inflation regime change, equities have room to run. The Fed's next meeting on April 28-29 will be the litmus test.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2. Consumer Sentiment Hits an All-Time Record Low -- the Worst Reading in 48 Years of Michigan Data

The News: The University of Michigan's preliminary April consumer sentiment index plunged 10.7% to 47.6, the lowest reading in the survey's entire history dating to 1978. Current conditions fell to 50.1 from 55.8; expectations dropped to 46.1 from 51.7. One-year inflation expectations spiked a full percentage point to 4.8% -- the sharpest single-month jump since April 2025. Critically, 98% of responses were collected before the April 7 ceasefire announcement.

Why It Matters: A record low in consumer confidence while inflation is accelerating is the textbook setup for the S-word: stagflation. Respondents directly linked their pessimism to the Iran war and its impact on prices. Business conditions expectations fell 20%, and personal finance assessments dropped 11%. For investors, the silver lining is timing -- the survey predates the ceasefire, so April's final read could bounce. For the economy, however, the damage is already done: consumers who feel this pessimistic spend less, and that feeds into Q2 GDP.

What to Watch: The final April reading (April 25). If the ceasefire holds and gas prices retreat toward $3.50, sentiment could recover sharply. If the Islamabad talks collapse and oil goes back above $100, this record low becomes the floor, not the bottom.

Source: Wall Street Journal

3. TSMC Posts Record Q1 Revenue of $35.7 Billion

The News: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reported Q1 2026 revenue of NT$1.134 trillion (~$35.7 billion), up 35.1% year-over-year and landing at the very top of its January guidance range. March alone was up 45.2% YoY -- the strongest March in TSMC's history. The company, which fabricates roughly nine out of ten advanced AI accelerators on the planet, guided 2026 capex to a record $52-56 billion, a 30% jump from 2025's $40.9 billion. U.S.-listed shares rose 2.5% premarket, and the halo effect sent the entire semiconductor complex surging.

Why It Matters: On a day when the CPI and consumer sentiment data painted an ugly economic picture, TSMC's numbers were a reminder that the AI infrastructure buildout is operating in its own orbit. The company beat estimates despite smartphone seasonality weakness and a stronger Taiwan dollar -- meaning AI accelerator demand from Nvidia, AMD, Apple, and the hyperscalers was strong enough to offset everything else. For investors, the $52-56 billion capex signal is the clearest visibility indicator in tech: you don't spend that kind of money unless your customers have already signed the wafer agreements to fill it.

What to Watch: The full Q1 earnings call on April 16. If TSMC holds its "close to 30% USD revenue growth" target for full-year 2026, every semi equipment name from ASML to Applied Materials reprices higher.

Source: TECHi

4. CoreWeave Signs a $21 Billion Deal With Meta and a Multibillion-Dollar Contract With Anthropic in the Same Week

The News: CoreWeave continued its extraordinary week of deal-making. On Wednesday, the AI cloud infrastructure company announced a $21 billion expanded partnership with Meta to provide AI inference capacity through December 2032, on top of a prior $14 billion agreement (total: $35 billion). Then on Thursday, CEO Michael Intrator confirmed on Bloomberg that CoreWeave signed a "multibillion-dollar contract" with Anthropic -- the company's first contract outside its core investor group. CoreWeave also tapped the capital markets for $8.5 billion in investment-grade bonds and the "largest dual offering ever" of convertible notes and high-yield debt.

Why It Matters: CoreWeave is becoming the picks-and-shovels play of the AI gold rush. The Meta deal alone is larger than the annual revenues of most S&P 500 companies. Winning Anthropic as a customer is the validation that CoreWeave's infrastructure can serve not just its investor-customers but the broader AI lab ecosystem. For investors, the capital markets appetite is the tell: $8.5 billion in bonds priced at near-investment-grade levels for a company that IPO'd weeks ago suggests institutional conviction in AI infrastructure demand that goes well beyond the hype cycle.

What to Watch: Whether the revenue concentration risk becomes an issue. Meta and Microsoft represent the lion's share of CoreWeave's backlog. Adding Anthropic diversifies the customer base, but the company needs 5-6 anchor clients, not 2-3, to justify its debt load.

Source: Reuters

5. Vance Heads to Islamabad to Lead the Highest-Level U.S.-Iran Meeting Since 1979

The News: Vice President JD Vance departed for Islamabad Friday to head the U.S. delegation at Saturday's peace talks with Iran -- the most senior direct engagement between the two nations since the Islamic Revolution. Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff are also on the delegation. Iran's delegation is led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Pakistan is hosting, with Prime Minister Sharif aiming for what officials describe as a "pragmatic, modest" outcome: simply getting both sides to agree to keep talking.

Why It Matters: This is the most important weekend in markets since the war began on February 28. Vance -- a vocal skeptic of foreign military intervention -- is now personally invested in the diplomatic outcome. The talks are built on Iran's 10-point proposal, not Trump's 15-point plan, which tells you who has leverage. For investors, the binary outcome is stark: progress means oil could break below $90 and equities extend their seven-day winning streak. Collapse means Hormuz stays shut, oil tests $110+, and the ceasefire premium evaporates by Monday's open.

What to Watch: Whether Iran's delegation actually shows up. Iran's semi-official Nournews (linked to the IRGC) said Thursday that talks would not proceed unless Israel stops striking Lebanon. Netanyahu authorized negotiations with Lebanon "as soon as possible" on Friday -- that may be just enough cover for Iran to attend.

Source: Axios

1. Only 7% of Normal Hormuz Traffic Has Resumed

The News: Three days after the ceasefire was announced, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. According to HormuzStraitMonitor.com, only 7% of typical tanker traffic has passed through as of Friday morning. Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran is "doing a very poor job, some would say dishonorable" in reopening the waterway. Earlier Thursday, Trump briefly endorsed an Iran-style toll system as "a beautiful thing" and a potential "joint venture" before reversing course hours later and demanding Iran "better stop now" with the fees.

Why It Matters: The gap between "ceasefire" and "Hormuz open" is the entire oil trade right now. WTI is still near $99 because ships aren't moving. Iran has been demanding $1 million+ per vessel in transit fees, effectively weaponizing the waterway as an economic toll road. The UAE's minister of industry directly criticized the arrangement, noting that transit passage under international law is "a right, not a privilege." For consumers, it means gas prices at $4.12 aren't coming down until actual tanker traffic normalizes.

What to Watch: The traffic count next week. If Saturday's talks produce even a framework agreement, insurance companies may begin reissuing marine war-risk policies -- and that's when the ships actually start moving.

Source: NPR

2. Pakistan Sets Modest Goals for Saturday's "Make or Break" Talks

The News: Pakistani officials told Al Jazeera that they are aiming for a pragmatic, limited outcome from Saturday's talks: getting U.S. and Iranian negotiators to find enough common ground to agree to continue negotiations. Iran's Supreme National Security Council indicated talks could extend up to 15 days. Experts involved in the mediation process expressed skepticism about a major breakthrough, but Pakistan is framing even a continuation of dialogue as a meaningful victory six weeks into a conflict that has closed the world's most important oil chokepoint.

Why It Matters: Expectations management is the game here. If the bar is "both sides agree to keep talking," it's much easier to clear than "comprehensive peace deal." For markets, that's actually bullish: even a modest agreement to continue negotiations would likely keep the ceasefire intact, prevent a return to active hostilities, and give oil markets a reason to stay below $100. The real risk is a walkout -- which is why Pakistan's security forces are deployed and the diplomatic choreography is being handled with extreme care.

What to Watch: The joint statement (if any) after Saturday's session. Even boilerplate language about "productive discussions" and "agreed to meet again" would be enough to sustain the ceasefire trade through next week.

Source: Al Jazeera

3. The Stagflation Data Dump: 3.3% Inflation + Record-Low Confidence = the Number the Fed Feared Most

The News: The back-to-back release of a 3.3% CPI print and a record-low 47.6 consumer sentiment reading on the same morning produced the most stagflationary data dump since the 1970s oil shocks. One-year inflation expectations surged to 4.8% (from 3.8% in March), while five-year expectations hit 3.4% -- the highest since November 2025. Fed minutes released this week revealed a split among policymakers over whether the Iran conflict warrants rate hikes to fight inflation or rate cuts to support growth.

Why It Matters: Stagflation -- rising prices and falling confidence simultaneously -- is the one scenario the Fed has no good tool for. Rate hikes kill the consumer even faster; rate cuts risk embedding inflation expectations. The saving grace, for now, is that core CPI is behaving. If the Iran war ends and energy normalizes, this could be a one-quarter blip. If it doesn't, the Fed is facing its most difficult policy environment since Paul Volcker.

What to Watch: The April 28-29 FOMC meeting. If the Fed holds at 3.5-3.75% and signals patience, markets will breathe. Any hawkish pivot in the statement would rattle a consumer base that's already at record pessimism.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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An IRS rule that disallows a tax deduction on a security sold at a loss if the same or a "substantially identical" security is repurchased within 30 days before or after the sale -- designed to prevent investors from harvesting losses for tax purposes while immediately reestablishing the same position.

"If you panic-sold your energy stocks when oil hit $100 and then bought them back three weeks later when the ceasefire dropped prices, the IRS might classify that as a wash sale -- and your tax deduction goes up in smoke."

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