Good Afternoon. TikTok finally found a U.S. home, ending a five-year regulatory saga just as global markets absorbed a very different shock: Japan raising rates to a 30-year high. Add chip deals, digital currencies, and shrinking cattle herds, and today feels like a turning-point kind of Friday. Let’s get into it.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Nasdaq Climbs as Nike Trips

The News: U.S. stocks edged higher Friday, led by the Nasdaq, as markets tried to close the final full trading week before Christmas on a strong note. The S&P 500 sits just below its recent record, while the Nasdaq has been unusually volatile, on track for its longest stretch of daily 1% moves since April. Gains followed Thursday’s softer inflation print, though Fed officials cautioned the data may be distorted by earlier reporting gaps. Japan’s 10-year yield moved above 2% for the first time since 1999, while the U.S. 10-year climbed to about 4.15%. In equities, Nike slid after forecasting a sales decline, while Oracle and AI-linked names like Nvidia and Palantir advanced.

Why It Matters: Markets are juggling two forces pulling in opposite directions. Cooling inflation and regulatory clarity support hopes for a year-end rally, but rising global yields, driven in part by Japan’s policy shift, tighten financial conditions at the same time. The divergence inside equities matters too: AI-linked optimism remains intact, while consumer-facing brands like Nike are signaling demand fatigue. That split hints at a market still searching for balance, not one confidently sprinting into 2026.

What to Watch: Watch bond markets closely, if yields keep climbing, the Santa Claus rally may stay on a short leash. Also watch earnings guidance from consumer brands for clues on demand into the new year.
Source: wsj.com

2. TikTok Agrees to U.S. Sale, Bringing a Five-Year Standoff to an End

The News: TikTok has signed a deal to divest its U.S. operations to a joint venture controlled by American investors, according to an internal memo seen by Axios. The transaction is expected to close Jan. 22 and values TikTok’s U.S. business at roughly $14 billion. Oracle, Silver Lake, and Abu Dhabi–based MGX will collectively own 45% of the new entity, with existing ByteDance investors holding about one-third and ByteDance itself retaining just under 20%. The new company, TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC, will operate independently on U.S. data protection, algorithm security, and content moderation.

Why It Matters: This deal ends one of the longest-running tech-national-security sagas in recent memory. Since 2020, TikTok has lived under the constant threat of a U.S. ban, spooking advertisers, creators, and investors alike. The sale satisfies a 2024 law requiring divestment, upheld by the Supreme Court, while allowing TikTok to keep operating in the U.S. For Washington, it’s a face-saving resolution to data and influence concerns; for ByteDance, it preserves a foothold in its most lucrative overseas market. For rivals like Meta and Google, it removes the regulatory guillotine that once hung over their fastest-growing competitor.

What to Watch: Watch how real the “independence” proves to be, especially the promise to retrain TikTok’s recommendation algorithm solely on U.S. data, with Oracle as the security backstop. Also watch China’s reaction: Beijing has previously bristled at forced tech divestments. For now, TikTok survives, creators keep posting, and a five-year geopolitical headache finally gets a closing date.
Source: axios.com

3. Regulators Greenlight Nvidia’s $5B Intel Bet

The News: U.S. antitrust regulators have cleared Nvidia’s $5 billion investment in Intel, removing the final regulatory hurdle for a deal announced in September. Under the transaction, Nvidia will buy roughly 215 million Intel shares at $23.28 each, giving it about a 4% stake in the chipmaker. The partnership focuses on integrating Intel’s x86 CPUs with Nvidia’s AI and accelerated computing platforms for data centers and PCs, while stopping short of shifting Nvidia’s GPU manufacturing away from TSMC.

Why It Matters: This is a strategic alignment with real consequences. For Nvidia, it strengthens control over the full AI computing stack at a moment when power, performance, and integration matter more than ever. For Intel, it’s badly needed validation and capital as it tries to claw its way back after years of missed turns, heavy losses, and manufacturing delays. The alliance also puts pressure on rivals: AMD’s integrated CPU-GPU approach and TSMC’s dominance in advanced manufacturing now face a coordinated challenge from two of the industry’s biggest names.

What to Watch: Watch whether Intel’s 18A manufacturing node delivers on its comeback promises, and how quickly Nvidia-Intel platforms show up in real data centers and PCs. Also watch AMD’s response, this deal is clearly aimed at its sweet spot. For now, Intel gets a lifeline, Nvidia gets leverage, and regulators have signaled they’re comfortable letting the AI chip arms race run.
Source: reuters.com

4. America’s Cattle Crunch Starts Shutting Beef Plants

The News: U.S. beef processors are closing plants as cattle supplies sink to their lowest level in more than 75 years. JBS will permanently shut its Swift Beef facility in California in February, cutting 374 jobs, while Tyson Foods plans to close its Nebraska plant in early 2026 and has already reduced capacity at its Texas operation. Nationwide beef processing capacity is being cut by roughly 7–9% as the U.S. cattle herd has fallen to just 86.7 million head, the smallest since 1951, according to USDA data.

Why It Matters: This is supply-chain math hitting the dinner table. Years of drought, high feed costs, and herd liquidation have left too few cattle to keep plants profitable, even as consumer demand remains strong. The result: fewer processing facilities, job losses in rural communities, and beef prices that stay stubbornly high—ground beef topped $6 a pound earlier this year. While the administration has eased imports and rolled out a herd-rebuilding plan, cattle biology doesn’t bend to policy timelines, meaning relief is likely years away, not months.

What to Watch: Watch for more plant closures over the next 12–18 months if cattle numbers don’t rebound, and keep an eye on border policy as imports from Mexico remain constrained. For consumers, the outlook is simple but painful: cheaper beef isn’t coming anytime soon. Steak nights may need a buy now, pay later financing plan.
Source: kcur.org

5. Netflix Doubles Down on Gaming With Avatar Startup Buy

The News: Netflix announced it is acquiring Ready Player Me, an avatar-creation startup, as it shifts its gaming strategy toward TV-based and interactive experiences. The Estonia-based company, which raised $72 million from investors including a16z, will shut down its standalone services in January 2026, with its roughly 20-person team joining Netflix. The streamer plans to use Ready Player Me’s technology to let subscribers carry persistent avatars across Netflix games, though it hasn’t said when avatars will launch or which titles will support them first.

Why It Matters: This deal reaffirms Netflix’s gaming ambitions. After years of mixed results chasing mobile games and studio acquisitions, Netflix is now focusing on fewer, more social, living-room-friendly experiences tied closely to its core brand. Persistent avatars hint at a longer-term play: turning Netflix fandom into something interactive, identity-based, and potentially monetizable. It’s also a subtle nod to platforms like Roblox and Fortnite, where identity keeps users coming back, not just content drops.

What to Watch: Watch whether Netflix can actually get subscribers to play, not just watch. Avatars are only useful if games stick and Netflix’s track record there is still uneven. Also watch how this ties into Netflix’s growing push for live and interactive content ahead of the 2026 World Cup. Netflix wants to be more than lean-back TV. The question is whether viewers want to sit forward.
Source: techcrunch.com

1. EU Clears Path for Digital Euro as Dollar Rivals Multiply

The News: EU governments agreed Friday on a common framework for a digital euro, clearing a major legislative hurdle and opening negotiations with the European Parliament. The move follows the ECB’s completion of all technical preparations and positions the project as a retail central bank digital currency designed to complement cash. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the groundwork is done, framing the digital euro as a future “anchor of stability” for Europe’s financial system, with pilot programs possible by mid-2027 and potential issuance around 2029.

Why It Matters: This is Europe playing defense and offense at the same time. As dollar-backed stablecoins gain traction globally and the U.S. explicitly bans a digital dollar, the EU sees a risk to monetary sovereignty and payments independence. A digital euro would reduce reliance on non-European networks like Visa and Mastercard, keep public money relevant in a digital economy, and give policymakers a counterweight to private crypto rails. It’s also a geopolitical signal: Europe doesn’t want the future of money decided in Silicon Valley or Washington.

What to Watch: Watch the European Parliament debate privacy, limits on holdings, and banks’ roles, those details will decide public acceptance. Also watch how markets respond as timelines firm up; 2029 sounds far off, but payments infrastructure moves slowly until it suddenly doesn’t. For now, Europe has agreed on the map, now comes the hard part of convincing everyone to follow it.
Source: finance.yahoo.com

2. India’s Market Has a Rough Year, Worst EM Showing in 30 Years

The News: Indian equities have posted their worst relative performance in nearly three decades among emerging markets, according to a new Jefferies report. The MSCI India index is up just 2.2% in U.S. dollar terms in 2025, badly trailing the MSCI Emerging Markets index (+29.9%) and Asia ex-Japan (+25.9%). Jefferies points to a cyclical economic slowdown, softer earnings growth, and a sharply weaker currency as the main drags.

Why It Matters: This is a reality check for one of Wall Street’s favorite long-term stories. India’s earnings growth is cooling toward 10% for FY26, the rupee has fallen 5.3% this year and slipped past 90 to the dollar, and U.S. tariffs are squeezing trade just as global capital chases faster growth elsewhere. While a weaker currency can help exports, Jefferies notes the rupee still isn’t especially cheap in long-term terms, limiting the upside. For global investors, India has gone from consensus overweight to a reminder that even structural winners go through cyclical slumps.

What to Watch: Watch whether the rupee stabilizes and whether U.S.–India trade talks actually dent the 50% tariffs still in place. Also keep an eye on earnings revisions: if growth keeps slowing, foreign flows may stay cautious. India’s long-term story isn’t broken, but in 2025, patience has not been rewarded.
Source: tribuneindia.com

3. Japan’s Rate Hike Ripples Across Global Bond Markets

The News: The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark rate to 0.75% on Friday, the highest level since 1995, delivering its second hike of the year and accelerating Japan’s exit from ultra-loose monetary policy. The move pushed global bond yields higher, with U.S. 10-year Treasurys climbing to 4.13% and Germany’s 30-year Bund yield hitting its highest level since 2011. Governor Kazuo Ueda struck a hawkish tone, warning that delaying normalization could force sharper rate increases later.

Why It Matters: Higher Japanese yields narrow the gap with U.S. and European bonds, raising the risk that Japan’s massive pool of savings begins flowing back home. Japanese investors hold roughly $1.1 trillion in U.S. Treasurys, and even modest repatriation could push global borrowing costs higher. The move also threatens the yen carry trade, a long-running strategy that has quietly financed risk assets worldwide, where investors borrow in Japanese yen at low interest rates and invest the money in higher‑yielding assets elsewhere. As that unwind begins, volatility tends to follow.

What to Watch: Watch Japanese capital flows and the yen: both will signal how disruptive this shift becomes. Also watch global bond markets for signs that Japan’s normalization is being repriced more aggressively than expected. For decades, Japan exported cheap money. On Friday, it reminded markets that nothing stays free forever.
Source: tradingview.com

Q: What do you call a snowman in the summer?

A: A puddle.

✅ Enjoy The Weekend: That’s it.

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