Good Afternoon. Markets reopened after the long Easter weekend to face a four-front collision: Trump threatening to level Iran by Tuesday night, the dramatic rescue of the missing F-15 pilot, oil still pinned above $110, and a jobs report from Friday that beat estimates by 3x. Despite all of that, stocks barely moved -- the S&P ground out a ~0.35% gain in a session that felt more like a holding pattern than a rally. The real fireworks start tomorrow. Trump has set an 8 p.m. ET Tuesday deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power grid and bridges. Tehran's response: a 10-point counter-proposal demanding a permanent end to the war and sanctions relief. The gaps are enormous. Buckle up.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Trump: "The Entire Country Can Be Taken Out in One Night, and That Night Might Be Tomorrow Night"

The News: President Trump held a White House press conference Monday afternoon in which he issued his most direct threat to Iran yet. "The entire country can be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night," he told reporters. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth added that Monday's strikes would be "the most extensive" since the war began, and that Tuesday's would be even larger. Trump confirmed a final deadline of 8 p.m. ET Tuesday for Iran to agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt its nuclear program, or face strikes on power plants, bridges, and other critical infrastructure.

Why It Matters: This is no longer ambiguous. Trump has drawn a specific deadline, named the targets, and brought his defense secretary to the podium to confirm the military is ready. For investors, the Tuesday 8 p.m. deadline is now the single most important moment for markets in 2026. Oil futures will likely be untradeable in the minutes around the deadline. For the broader picture, the rhetoric has escalated past any plausible deniability -- if Trump doesn't follow through, the credibility of every future threat evaporates. If he does follow through, oil tests $120-130 and the VIX could spike to 40.

What to Watch: The window between now and 8 p.m. ET Tuesday. Pakistan's intermediary channel is still active, and a framework for a 45-day ceasefire has been submitted -- but Trump hasn't signed off and Iran hasn't accepted it.

Source: cnbc.com

2. "We Got Him" -- The Missing F-15 Pilot Was Found Alive in a Mountain Crevice and Rescued by Special Forces

The News: The second crew member of the U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle shot down over Iran on Friday has been rescued alive after more than 24 hours behind enemy lines. President Trump announced the rescue early Sunday on Truth Social: "WE GOT HIM!" The weapons systems officer -- described by Trump as a "highly respected Colonel" -- had ejected and was hiding in a mountain crevice in southwestern Iran. The CIA located him using classified technology and confirmed his identity, then U.S. special operations forces conducted a nighttime extraction mission, deploying "dozens of aircraft armed with the most lethal weapons in the world." Both crew members are now safe with injuries but walking. The IRGC had been actively searching the area and had offered a $60,000 reward for information.

Why It Matters: This is one of the most dramatic rescue stories of the entire conflict and a significant intelligence and military achievement. The U.S. pulled a downed airman out of hostile territory while Iranian forces were actively hunting him -- that's the kind of operation that succeeds once and becomes much harder the next time. For the White House, the rescue is a PR win that Trump is clearly leveraging in his press conference rhetoric. For the military, the incident confirms that Iran's air defenses are capable of downing U.S. aircraft, even if the overall mission was successful.

What to Watch: Whether the rescue narrative shifts public opinion. Polls have shown Americans increasingly skeptical of the war, but "we got our guy back" stories tend to boost support -- at least temporarily.

Source: time.com

3. U.S.-Israeli Strike Kills the Head of IRGC Intelligence

The News: Major General Majid Khademi, the intelligence chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was killed in a U.S.-Israeli strike early Monday morning, the IRGC confirmed via its Telegram channel. Khademi was described as "a prominent and knowledgeable leader" of the IRGC's intelligence apparatus. His death marks the most senior Iranian military official killed since the war began on February 28 and the highest-ranking IRGC figure eliminated since Qassem Soleimani in 2020. The IRGC warned that it is "working on a strategy for a new order in the Strait of Hormuz" in response.

Why It Matters: Killing Iran's top spy is both a military achievement and a diplomatic risk. For the military campaign, removing the head of IRGC intelligence degrades Iran's ability to coordinate its drone and missile operations, gather intelligence on coalition forces, and protect senior leadership. For diplomacy, it makes a ceasefire harder -- Iran is unlikely to negotiate from a position of perceived weakness immediately after losing a major figure. For investors, the IRGC's ominous reference to "a new order in the Strait of Hormuz" suggests the response could involve further tightening of maritime access.

What to Watch: Iran's promised retaliation. Every major targeted killing in this war has been followed by an escalatory response within 48-72 hours. The timing overlaps with Trump's Tuesday deadline.

Source: globalnation.inquirer.net

4. ISM Services PMI Cools to 54 in March

The News: The ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index fell to 54.0 in March from 56.1 in February, missing the consensus estimate of 55.0. While still in expansion territory, the drop marks the sharpest one-month deceleration since mid-2024. The report came out at 10 a.m. ET on a day where the services data had to compete with geopolitical headlines for attention -- and largely lost.

Why It Matters: Services make up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, so a 2.1-point drop matters more than it looks. For the Fed, today's ISM Services data pushes in the opposite direction from Friday's blockbuster jobs report. The labor market says the economy is strong; the services sector says the war is starting to bite. For investors, the combination of strong employment and slowing activity is a familiar pattern: companies are holding onto workers but pulling back on expansion. For consumers, the services slowdown hasn't shown up in prices yet -- but if activity keeps cooling while input costs stay high, margin compression becomes the story.

What to Watch: Whether the April reading accelerates the decline. If the war drags on and oil stays above $110, a services PMI below 50 (contraction) by summer isn't out of the question.

Source: tradingeconomics.com

5. Iran Rejects the U.S. Ceasefire and Fires Back With Its Own 10-Point Plan

The News: Iran formally rejected the U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal on Monday and submitted its own 10-point counter-offer through Pakistan, according to state news agency IRNA. Tehran's demands include a permanent end to the war (not a temporary ceasefire), the lifting of all U.S. sanctions, reconstruction commitments, a formal protocol for Strait of Hormuz passage, and an end to all regional conflicts. The foreign ministry spokesperson said Iran "does not hesitate to express its legitimate demands" and warned that negotiations cannot proceed "under threats." Separately, a 45-day ceasefire framework brokered by Pakistan was submitted to both sides over the weekend, but Trump has not signed off and called it merely "one of many ideas."

Why It Matters: Iran wants the moon. The U.S. wants unconditional surrender. The gap between these two positions is wider than at any point since the war began. For investors, this means the diplomatic track is essentially dead heading into Tuesday's deadline. For the peace process, the fact that Iran sent a formal 10-point response is actually a positive signal -- they're engaging, even if the starting positions are miles apart. For markets, the failure of diplomacy is already partially priced in: the VIX at 24.5 reflects elevated but not panic-level uncertainty.

What to Watch: Whether Pakistan can broker a last-minute compromise before 8 p.m. ET Tuesday. The intermediary channel is the only one still functioning, and sources say the likelihood of even a limited agreement in the next 36 hours is "low."

Source: moneycontrol.com

1. Oil Holds Above $110 as the Deadline Arrives

The News: WTI crude rose approximately 1.3% to around $113 per barrel on Monday, while Brent climbed about 1.2% to $110.30. But the headline numbers don't capture the real stress: Dated Brent -- the benchmark for actual physical cargoes rather than futures contracts -- briefly surged past $140 per barrel last week, its highest level since 2008. The spread between paper and physical crude reflects a desperate scramble for barrels that can actually be delivered. Monday's session was volatile, with WTI swinging between $108 and $115 intraday as every Trump comment moved the tape.

Why It Matters: When physical oil trades at a $30 premium to futures, it means the real-world supply crunch is far worse than the headline price suggests. Refineries are paying whatever it takes to get crude delivered, and that cost flows directly into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and everything that moves by truck. For consumers, the gap between futures and physical prices explains why gas at the pump feels more expensive than the "$110 oil" headline implies. For energy traders, the contango structure has collapsed -- nearby months are now trading at massive premiums, signaling that the supply disruption is acute and immediate.

What to Watch: Tuesday's deadline. If Trump strikes infrastructure, analysts estimate Brent futures could spike to $130-140 to converge with the physical market. If a deal emerges, $90-95 is the downside target.

Source: ndtvprofit.com

2. Pakistan's 45-Day Ceasefire Framework Is on the Table

The News: A two-tier ceasefire framework brokered by Pakistan was submitted to both the U.S. and Iran over the weekend. The plan calls for an immediate 45-day ceasefire as a first phase, followed by 15 to 20 days of negotiations to reach a broader regional settlement, including a framework governing the Strait of Hormuz. However, neither side has accepted it. Trump called it "a significant step" but the White House official said "POTUS has not signed off on it. Operation Epic Fury continues." Iran rejected the ceasefire component entirely and submitted its own 10-point counter-proposal. Sources familiar with the talks told reporters "the gaps are very big."

Why It Matters: Pakistan has been the most effective intermediary since the war began, and this framework represents the closest thing to an actual deal structure that both sides have seen on paper. The 45-day window is significant because it would get through most of Q2 earnings season and give supply chains time to partially normalize. For investors, the mere existence of a framework is supporting the modest stock gains today. For the peace process, the problem isn't the plan -- it's that the U.S. demands unconditional Hormuz reopening and Iran demands sanctions relief, and neither is willing to go first.

What to Watch: Whether Pakistan can shuttle a modified version before Tuesday night. Time is running out, and both sides appear to be digging in rather than moving closer.

Source: jpost.com

3. Markets Absorb the Easter Gap Without Breaking

The News: The first trading session after the three-day Easter weekend saw the S&P 500 edge up 0.32%, the Nasdaq gain 0.50%, and the Dow add 0.22%. The muted moves belie the drama underneath: Sunday night futures had gapped down over 0.5% on Trump's escalatory rhetoric before reversing on rescue-and-ceasefire headlines. The VIX climbed 2.68% to 24.51, reflecting traders hedging aggressively ahead of Tuesday's deadline. Volume was below average as many European markets remained closed for Easter Monday, thinning global liquidity.

Why It Matters: The fact that stocks held together through a weekend that included a downed fighter jet, a dramatic rescue, the killing of a senior Iranian military leader, and a rejected ceasefire proposal is either a sign of market resilience or a sign that nobody is willing to take risk ahead of the real catalyst. For investors, the VIX at 24.5 with stocks barely moving is a classic "coiled spring" pattern. The next big move -- whenever it comes -- will likely be violent in either direction. For risk managers, Tuesday's close could be one of the most volatile sessions of the year.

What to Watch: Options markets are pricing in a 3-4% move in either direction by Wednesday morning. The straddle premiums on SPY are the widest since the war began.

Source: wsj.com

Q: Why don't ants get sick?

A: Because they have tiny ant-bodies.

The percentage of tax applied to the last dollar of income earned. In a progressive tax system like the U.S., the marginal rate increases as income rises through each bracket, but only applies to income within that bracket -- not your entire earnings.

"When my client panicked about moving into the 32% marginal tax rate bracket, I reminded her that only the dollars above $191,950 are taxed at that rate -- not every dollar she earns."