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Good Afternoon. If you’re counting on the federal government running Wednesday, maybe don’t. Prediction markets now give Washington only a 30% chance of keeping the lights on. Meanwhile, Trump lit up pot stocks with a weekend post, and a gaming giant just cashed out in a $55B buyout. Let’s get into it.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

💰 Markets

S&P 500

Dow Jones

NASDAQ 100

iShares 7–10 Year Treasury

Bitcoin

Volatility Index

🔍 Section Focus

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

  • Pot stocks: Tilray +42%, Aurora +25%, Canopy +18% after Trump touted CBD for seniors’ healthcare. Even weed ETFs lit up, AdvisorShares jumped 21.8%. Guess we’ll see how long the high lasts.

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

  • Operational Stability: Prediction markets now give a 70% chance of a government shutdown this week, and the Labor Department already says Friday’s jobs report won’t be published if it happens.

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🇺🇸 U.S. News

1. Markets Put 70% Odds on Shutdown

The News: Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket now price a 70% chance of a federal shutdown starting Wednesday, up from 50% over the weekend. The Labor Department confirmed it won’t release Friday’s key jobs report if the government closes, removing a critical data point for Wall Street. At issue: Democrats want ACA subsidy extensions included in the funding bill, while Republicans say that debate should wait until after a deal. Trump will meet congressional leaders Monday as agencies prep for possible mass layoffs, not just furloughs.

Why It Matters: A shutdown risks delayed paychecks for federal workers, suspended benefits, and disruptions to services like loan processing, hitting wallets quickly. For investors, missing the September jobs report complicates Fed policy expectations just weeks before its Oct. 29 meeting. Mass firings, if Trump follows through, would mark a historic break from prior shutdowns and deepen economic risk. What to watch: Wednesday’s funding deadline and whether Trump pushes through layoffs.
Source: cnbc.com

2. What a Shutdown Could Cost You

The News: If Congress misses its Sept. 30 deadline, hundreds of thousands of federal workers face furloughs or permanent layoffs under new Trump-era rules. While essential services like Social Security checks and air traffic control would continue, most agencies would pause, delaying passports, loan approvals, and key economic data. The September jobs report, projected to show 43,000 new jobs and 4.3% unemployment, won’t be released if the shutdown begins Wednesday, leaving the Fed flying blind before its Oct. 29 policy meeting.

Why It Matters: Missed paychecks and delayed services strain budgets and create uncertainty around mortgages, credit cards, and retirement accounts. For investors, a missing jobs report adds volatility as the Fed debates another rate cut. Shutdowns tend to end quickly, but short-term disruption can ripple through household finances and markets alike. What to watch: whether lawmakers strike a deal before Wednesday night’s deadline. For now, the best hedge against Washington gridlock is still an emergency fund, not a prediction market bet.
Source: msn.com

3. U.S. Gold Reserves Top $1 Trillion

The News: U.S. gold reserves, totaling 261.5M ounces, crossed the $1 trillion mark Monday as prices surged to a record $3,824.50 per ounce, up 45% YTD. Despite the milestone, official federal balance sheets still list the hoard at just $11B, reflecting a $42.22/oz valuation set in 1973. The rally has been fueled by a weakening dollar, shutdown fears, and 90% odds of a Fed rate cut in October. ETF demand is climbing too, SPDR Gold Shares added nearly a tonne Friday, lifting holdings to 997.7 tonnes.

Why It Matters: Pricier gold signals broad demand for safe havens as inflation, Fed policy, and political risk keep wallets on edge. For policymakers, the gap between book and market value revives debate over revaluation, which could unlock ~$990B but risks destabilizing Fed policy. Treasury insists it won’t happen without Congress. What to watch: Whether the government shuts down, Fed cuts in October and whether gold sustains momentum into year-end. For now, America’s bullion stash is worth a trillion but still treated on paper like it’s 1973.
Source: bloomberg.com

4. Cannabis Stocks Jump on Trump CBD Endorsement

The News: U.S.-listed cannabis stocks soared Monday after President Trump called cannabidiol (CBD) a potential “revolution” for senior healthcare. Tilray spiked 42%, Aurora 25%, Canopy Growth 18%, and Cronos 15.5%. Cannabis-focused ETFs also jumped—AdvisorShares up 21.8% and Roundhill 21.6%, both on pace for record quarterly gains above 70%. The move follows Trump’s hints at reclassifying marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III, which would ease criminal penalties and remove the tax code’s restrictive Section 280E.

Why It Matters: Reclassification could broaden access to CBD-based treatments while reducing costs for seniors if insurers eventually cover more products. For cannabis companies, a tax break and potential U.S. listings would open new capital streams in a battered sector. Volatility remains high, as stocks have swung wildly with political signals in the past. What to watch: whether Trump follows through on rescheduling cannabis ahead of 2026. For now, weed stocks are finally enjoying a new high.
Source: reuters.com

5. EA Goes Private in $55B Deal

The News: Electronic Arts (EA) agreed to a $55B buyout led by Silver Lake and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, taking the videogame giant private at $210 per share—a 25% premium to last week’s close. The deal comes just ahead of the Oct. 10 release of Battlefield 6, which analysts expect to outperform after two weak entries. Still, the valuation is below the 45% premium Microsoft paid for Activision in 2022, reflecting skepticism about hit-driven volatility in gaming.

Why It Matters: For gamers, EA’s shift could mean less short-term Wall Street pressure but no guarantee against sequels packed with microtransactions. For investors, the sale highlights gaming’s boom-bust economics: one franchise can move billions, but momentum fades fast, especially with GTA VI arriving next spring. Private ownership gives EA steady backing, but locks public shareholders out of future upside. What to watch: Battlefield 6 sales after its Oct. 10 launch. For now, EA cashed in its chips just as players were lining up for another round.
Source: wsj.com

🌎 World News

1. New Material Promises 10× Energy Savings in Memory Chips

The News: Researchers at Chalmers University (Sweden) unveiled an atomically thin material that combines ferromagnetism and antiferromagnetism in a single crystal, something scientists had chased for decades. The result: memory devices that can switch electron direction without external magnetic fields, cutting power consumption by up to 90%. Made from cobalt, iron, germanium, and tellurium, the new material simplifies chip fabrication and avoids interface flaws seen in today’s multilayered designs. Findings were published in Advanced Materials.

Why It Matters: More efficient memory chips could extend smartphone battery life, shrink cloud-computing costs, and slow the power drain from AI workloads. For industry, data processing is projected to consume nearly 30% of global energy within decades, making breakthroughs like this critical for scaling. The discovery could also ease manufacturing headaches while boosting reliability. What to watch: partnerships with chipmakers to move the material from lab to fab. For now, the hottest new chip isn’t on shelves, it’s in Sweden.
Source: eurekalert.org

2. Toyota Sales Climb for 8th Straight Month

The News: Toyota reported its eighth consecutive month of global sales growth in August, with deliveries rising 2.2% to 844,963 vehicles. Overseas sales hit a record for the month, up 4.4%, led by a 13.6% surge in U.S. sales to 225,367 units. Hybrids like the RAV4 and Camry fueled demand, offsetting a 12.1% drop in Japan tied to earthquake-related production delays. Global output rose 4.9%, including a 19% jump in U.S. manufacturing, despite 25% tariffs on imported vehicles under Trump’s trade policies.

Why It Matters: Hybrid demand is keeping options competitive even as tariffs threaten higher sticker prices later this year. For the industry, Toyota’s resilience contrasts with Honda’s 5.2% decline and highlights shifting share toward hybrids. Analysts caution Q4 sales could soften as costlier, tariff-hit inventory reaches showrooms. What to watch: whether Toyota sustains momentum as U.S. sales approach Cox Automotive’s 16.1M forecast for 2025 and how interest rates impact car buying behavior. For now, buyers are proving they’ll stomach tariffs as long as the car sips gas, not guzzles it.
Source: benzinga.com

3. South Korea Data Center Fire Disrupts Services Nationwide

The News: A fire at a South Korean government data center during routine battery maintenance damaged 96 of 647 systems, forcing preventive shutdowns across the network. Lithium-ion batteries triggered “thermal runaway,” complicating firefighting. By Sunday, officials had restored 50% of network equipment and 763 of 767 security devices, but full recovery of damaged systems may take two weeks. The outage disrupted Korea Post banking and parcel tracking, critical during the Chuseok holiday, as well as mobile ID systems at airports and kiosks at district offices.

Why It Matters: The outage means delayed transfers, lost parcel tracking on 1.6M daily packages, and forced reliance on physical IDs. For government, it highlights the fragility of digital infrastructure: an 11-year-old battery, past its 10-year warranty, sparked the blaze. President Lee ordered redundant “dual-layer” systems to prevent a repeat. What to watch: restoration progress this week and whether the probe prompts broader upgrades to Korea’s digital backbone. For now, the holiday rush is proving that analog backups, cash and paper IDs, still matter when servers burn.
Source: koreaharold.com

🥸 Dad Joke of the Day

Q: Why did the cookie go to the doctor?

A: Because it felt crummy.

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📖 MBA Vocab Word of the Day

Insipid:

Lacking flavor, zest, interest, or excitement; dull.

“The professor’s insipid lecture put several students to sleep.”

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