Good Afternoon. Welcome back. We left you to enjoy the holidays and returned to a world that clearly did not honor out-of-office replies. If 2026 has a theme so far, it’s “events-driven” the kind where defense, energy, and credit all end up in the same group chat, whether they want to or not. Let’s get into it.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Dow Close to 49,000 as Venezuela Shock Hits Oil, Gold, and Defense

The News: U.S. stocks rallied on Jan. 5, led by the Dow jumping about +600 points (+1.24%), after the U.S. capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro pushed traders into an “energy and security” trade. The Dow briefly topped 49,000 intraday (and hit an intraday high above 49,180, per Yahoo Finance), while the S&P 500 (+0.64%) and Nasdaq (+0.69%) also climbed. Energy shares outperformed, Chevron +4% and the S&P energy sector up about +1.3%, as President Trump talked up a future Venezuela production revival, even as oil prices whipped around.

Why It Matters: Markets are treating Venezuela as both a potential future supply story (eventually bearish for oil if barrels really return) and an immediate geopolitical-risk story (bullish for defense, safe havens, and volatility). That split showed up in commodities: Brent traded around the low $60s (one Reuters snapshot had it near $60.49 early), while gold and silver surged and copper hit fresh records (U.S. copper futures jumped about 5% to $5.9245/lb). Translation: investors are buying the “growth and reopening” parts of the headline while also paying for insurance.

What to Watch: Next catalysts are the policy details (sanctions/licensing around Venezuelan crude, and whether Washington signals further action), and the calendar: traders are also watching CES remarks from Nvidia and AMD plus incoming U.S. data like nonfarm payrolls, which can quickly reprice rate expectations and risk appetite. If that sounds like a lot for one Monday, your right, it is and markets also noticed.
Source: wsj.com

2. Venezuela’s Oil Reset: The Meeting After the Raid

The News: U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright is set to meet oil executives this week in Miami around the Goldman Sachs Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference (Jan. 6–8), as the administration pivots from last week’s operation that captured Nicolás Maduro to the much messier question: who, exactly, rebuilds Venezuela’s oil sector. Several executives told Reuters that Exxon, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips weren’t consulted before or after the operation, contradicting President Trump’s claim that he spoke to “all” the companies, while officials have signaled that any return of major capital will come with conditions and a push to restart investment fast.

Why It Matters: This is where geopolitics meets barrel math: Venezuela has the world’s largest proven reserves and output that’s been a shadow of its 1970s peak (~3.5M bpd), so a real recovery could eventually reshape oil supply—and prices—over time. For U.S. firms, the carrot is also very literal money: ConocoPhillips has an ~$8.7B arbitration award tied to expropriations, and companies want a path to restitution—but investing into state-controlled PDVSA after years of sanctions and underinvestment comes with legal, operational, and political tripwires. Translation: the opportunity is big; the fine print is bigger.

What to Watch: Whether the administration offers a workable “deal shape” (sanctions clarity, contract enforceability, repatriation rules), and whether Chevron’s current export channel, about 150,000 bpd to the U.S. Gulf, expands or becomes the template for others. Also watch oil-price sensitivity: analysts say meaningful Venezuelan ramp-up takes years and major capex, so any market move near-term will likely be headline-driven—basically, the kind of “volatility” traders call “Tuesday.”
Source: reuters.com

3. Bond Market’s New Year’s Resolution: Borrow More

The News: U.S. investment-grade issuers came back from the holiday break in a hurry on Jan. 5, 2026, with ~20 companies pricing high-grade bonds in the busiest single day since early September, per Bloomberg. The rush included names like GM’s finance arm and Williams Cos., while Europe and Asia also kicked off their own early-year calendars as spreads stay tight and investors look hungry for paper. In the same “risk-on for credit” mood, UBS tested demand with Additional Tier 1 notes and pulled around $10B+ of bids versus a roughly $3B target, marketing tranches callable in 2031 (~7.125%) and 2036 (~7.5%).

Why It Matters: This is the financing flywheel behind 2026’s big themes: AI infrastructure capex, a looming refinancing wall (more than $1 trillion of corporate debt maturing annually over the next three years), and a potential pickup in M&A. Dealers surveyed by Bloomberg peg January high-grade issuance around $215B—an all-time monthly high—while JPMorgan has forecast $1.81 trillion in U.S. investment-grade issuance for 2026, potentially topping the pandemic-era record. In plain English: the AI buildout is starting to look less like a tech story and more like a credit-market story (which is how you know it’s getting serious).

What to Watch: Whether demand stays this strong once the calendar really fills up: if spreads widen, issuers may rush even faster; if yields fall, CFOs may get bolder on terming-out debt and funding capex. Also watch the AT1 market—big order books are nice, but the real test is how these deals trade in the secondary market after the “new-issue smell” wears off.
Source: bloomberg.com

4. Solid-State Battery Claims “Production-Ready” and Shows Up on a Motorcycle

The News: Donut Lab says it has the first commercially available all-solid-state EV battery, unveiling it at CES 2026 in Las Vegas and putting it into an actual production vehicle: Verge Motorcycles’ TS Pro, which the companies say enters production in Q1 2026. Donut touts ~400 Wh/kg cell-level energy density, “five-minute” full charging, and durability “up to 100,000 cycles,” while Verge markets the TS Pro with a 33.3 kWh pack, up to ~600 km (373 miles) range, and 200 kW fast charging (it says you can add 186 miles in under 10 minutes). Verge lists orders live, starting around $29,900.

Why It Matters: Solid-state has been the EV industry’s favorite “two years away” technology because it should be safer (no flammable liquid electrolyte) and potentially denser than today’s lithium-ion—so a real, buyable product (even a premium motorcycle) is a credibility milestone. It also raises the competitive pressure on incumbents: Toyota and partners have publicly targeted 2027–2028 for solid-state battery production and rollout timelines, so a smaller player landing real-world deployments first could reshape investor expectations around who wins the next battery platform shift. The big asterisk is scale and economics: Donut also claims its cells can be cheaper than lithium-ion, which would be a genuine industry plot twist if it holds up beyond early runs.

What to Watch: Independent validation (energy density, cycle life, fast-charge limits, cold/heat performance), and, more importantly, whether Donut can ramp manufacturing beyond a niche vehicle into consistent, high-volume supply for automakers and fleets. Also watch how “five-minute charging” is defined in practice (full charge vs. usable window, charger power, tapering), because batteries and marketing both love the number five, except one of them has to obey the laws of physics.
Source: donutlab.com

5. Flu’s Back in the Corner Office

The News: The CDC now estimates the 2025–26 U.S. flu season has already hit at least 11M illnesses, 120,000 hospitalizations, and 5,000 deaths, and for the first time this season labeled conditions “moderately severe.” The spread is being driven by influenza A(H3N2) especially the subclade K variant (about 90.5% of 389 sequenced H3N2 samples) with hospitals admitting roughly 33,301 flu patients in the week ending Dec. 27, and outpatient respiratory/flu-like visits rising to about 8.2% of all healthcare visits.

Why It Matters: A hotter flu season is an economy story in disguise: more sick days and staffing gaps hit retail, restaurants, airlines, schools, and logistics, while higher utilization pressures hospitals, insurers, and employers already juggling winter capacity. It also matters for markets because the “winner” list is uneven, pharmacies, diagnostics, antivirals, and telehealth can see demand spikes, while consumer-facing businesses often get the short end of the cough. And with a strain mismatch in play, the risk isn’t just more cases, it’s more uncertainty about how long the surge lasts.

What to Watch: Flu seasons often peak in January or February, so the next few CDC updates on hospital admissions, regional activity, and pediatric impacts are the real tell on whether this is a spike or a slog; New York’s record weekly flu hospitalizations late December is the kind of datapoint other states watch nervously. And if you’re wondering what “moderately severe” feels like in real life: it’s your calendar quietly filling up with “Sick Leave” invites.
Source: usnews.com

1. Paper-Thin Tablet, Paper-Thin Battery

The News: Chinese manufacturer Haining Toall Technology debuted an ultra-slim Android tablet called Paper at CES Unveiled (Jan. 4), claiming 3.1mm thickness (CES lists 4mm) and 400g weight, well under Apple’s 13-inch iPad Pro at 5.1mm and 579g. It packs a 13.2-inch flexible AMOLED display (120Hz), with ports (two USB-C + mini HDMI) tucked into a raised rear strip that also works as a grip; pricing starts at $1,500 with 8GB/256GB or 16GB/512GB, and the company was vague on the processor beyond saying it’s a “Chinese” chip.

Why It Matters: This is a loud reminder that hardware innovation isn’t just coming from the usual suspects: if Toall can ship at scale, it pressures premium tablets to compete on industrial design and display engineering, not just specs. For buyers, the benefit is obvious—less bulk—but the trade-off is equally clear: reported ~3 hours of battery life makes it more “sleek accessory” than “all-day device,” unless that battery case really delivers.

What to Watch: Watch durability tests (thin devices love physics until they meet the real world), a confirmed chipset and performance, and whether the promised global rollout lands in March 2026 with credible U.S. distribution because the “world’s thinnest tablet” only matters if you can actually buy one.
Source: ces.tech

2. Greenland Deadline, NATO Red Line

The News: President Donald Trump escalated talk of taking Greenland, telling reporters aboard Air Force One the U.S. “needs” it for national security and teasing a timeline “about two months” and “20 days” while mocking Denmark’s recent Arctic security upgrades as “one more dog sled.” The comments landed just as allies were still absorbing the shock of the U.S. military operation that captured Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro over the weekend, a sequencing that has European capitals openly gaming out “Venezuela, then what?” scenarios.

Why It Matters: This is a direct stress test of the postwar rules of the road: Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called annexation talk “nonsense” and warned a U.S. attack on a NATO ally would effectively mean the end of NATO, while Greenland’s PM Jens-Frederik Nielsen said “enough is enough” and rejected any “fantasies of annexation.” Markets don’t love alliance ambiguity, Arctic shipping lanes, energy, and critical-minerals access all sit downstream of whether this becomes rhetoric, sanctions, or something messier.

What to Watch: Concrete U.S. moves (envoys, basing demands, sanctions, legislative steps), and for how quickly Europe hardens its response, Nordic leaders and UK PM Keir Starmer have already lined up behind Denmark’s sovereignty message, which raises the odds of coordinated diplomatic and economic pushback if Washington presses.
Source: cbs19news.com

3. Samsung Turns Galaxy Wearables Into a Cognitive “Check Engine” Light

The News: The Korean company said it’s expanding dementia-detection capabilities through research partnerships, using wearables to spot subtle changes in mobility, speech, and engagement that can correlate with long-term cognitive decline. Samsung framed it as proactive “Care Companion” monitoring—not a diagnosis—with alerts when patterns look abnormal and the option to share health metrics with clinicians via Xealth; reports say the signals could draw from Galaxy wearables (including Watch/Ring), plus how users interact with devices like Bixby and smart-home controls. Samsung also emphasized security foundations like Knox/Knox Matrix, with reporting that sensitive data is intended to stay local rather than in the cloud.

Why It Matters: If this works, it shifts wearables from “steps and sleep” into something closer to early-warning health screening, where time really matters for outcomes and planning, especially for families who often spot changes late. It’s also a competitive line in the sand: whoever can credibly link consumer sensors to clinical workflows (and do it without spooking users on privacy) gets a moat that’s bigger than prettier watch faces. There’s solid precedent that AI can flag dementia risk in clinical settings (Exeter researchers reported up to 92% accuracy predicting dementia within two years using memory-clinic data), but translating that into everyday life means managing false alarms and the very human tendency to ignore notifications anyway.

What to Watch: Clinical-validation results, where the feature launches first (reports point to a beta in select markets), and whether Samsung positions it as a “wellness” nudge or pursues deeper medical-grade clearance—plus how data-sharing via Xealth is handled by default. Also: whether competitors follow, because once your watch starts commenting on cognition, “closing rings” is going to feel downright carefree.
Source: androidauthority.com

Q: Why don’t ants get sick?

A: Because they have tiny ant-bodies.

✅ No Excuses: Stashing cash for emergencies? Make every dollar count with a high-yield savings account that outpaces your old bank.* It takes five minutes to open.
✅ Cold Water Face Splash: Splash cold water on your face and wrists. Instant alertness boost when you're feeling sluggish.
✅ Car Trash Can: This trash can for your car is a lifesaver on road trips.

*A message from our sponsor or affiliate link.

Respectful submission or yielding to the judgment or opinion of someone else.

“Out of deference to her mentor, she accepted the suggested changes.”

Grit Capital: Get weekly deep dives on markets, stocks, and investing strategies used by 270K+ investors, hedge funds, billionaires, and advisors. Sign-up here.