Good Afternoon. If yesterday's market was a rollercoaster, today was the part where the ride breaks down mid-loop and nobody knows if it's going back up or coming off the tracks. Oil cratered 11% on Trump's "very complete, pretty much" assessment of the war -- then an Iranian drone hit the UAE's largest refinery, briefly erasing the rally. Stocks finished roughly flat, gold punched above $5,200, and Wall Street is basically just refreshing headlines and hoping for the best.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Oil Crashes 11% After Trump Says War Is "Very Complete, Pretty Much"

The News: Crude oil prices plunged Tuesday after President Trump told CBS News the Iran war was "very complete, pretty much" and would end "very soon." WTI fell roughly 11% to around $84 a barrel, while Brent dropped 10.4% to $88. That's a staggering reversal from Monday's $119 intraday peak. Trump also threatened Iran on Truth Social, warning he would strike "TWENTY TIMES HARDER" if the country impedes oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, and floated the idea of "taking it over."

Why It Matters: For investors, this is the most volatile stretch in crude oil since the 2020 pandemic crash -- and the whiplash makes it nearly impossible to position cleanly. An 11% daily move in either direction means anyone with leveraged oil exposure is either popping champagne or getting a margin call. For consumers, the relief is real but delayed: gas prices hit $3.48/gallon on Monday, and even if crude stabilizes near $85, pump prices won't fall for another week or two.

What to Watch: Trump's rhetoric is driving short-term moves, but the facts on the ground are messier -- Defense Secretary Hegseth announced Tuesday will be "our most intense day of strikes inside Iran." If actions diverge from the president's words, oil could whipsaw again.

Source: CNN

2. Gold Smashes Through $5,200 as the Ultimate "I Don't Know What's Happening" Trade

The News: Gold surged approximately 2.6% on Tuesday to $5,218 per ounce, punching to fresh record highs as investors piled into the metal amid extreme geopolitical uncertainty. The rally comes even as the dollar strengthened -- a rare setup where gold and the greenback move in the same direction, reflecting pure fear-driven demand rather than currency dynamics.

Why It Matters: Gold above $5,200 tells you everything about the current market psychology: nobody trusts the narrative. When stocks are flat, bonds are selling off, oil is gyrating 10%+ per day, and the president is simultaneously declaring victory and escalating strikes, gold becomes the "I'll figure it out later" allocation. For investors, this is the clearest signal that institutional money is hedging against scenarios most people aren't discussing publicly -- prolonged war, an inflation shock, or both.

What to Watch: The $5,500 level is the next psychological barrier. If gold gets there, it would represent a nearly 15% move from pre-war levels and could trigger a broader wave of retail buying through ETFs like GLD and IAU.

Source: WSJ

3. Saudi Aramco Warns of "Catastrophic Consequences" for Oil Markets

The News: Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned Tuesday that prolonged disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz could have "catastrophic consequences for the world's oil markets, and the longer the disruption goes, the more drastic the impact on the global economy." Speaking during Aramco's earnings call, Nasser added that the company could ramp production "in days, not weeks" if shipping routes reopen -- but emphasized that the current bottleneck is transit, not supply.

Why It Matters: When the world's largest oil exporter publicly uses the word "catastrophic," it recalibrates the risk. For investors, Nasser's comments are a reminder that the G7 strategic reserve release and Trump's peace rhetoric are addressing the symptom (price), not the disease (closed shipping lanes). Saudi Arabia can produce all the oil it wants -- if it can't ship it, it doesn't matter. For the global economy, an extended Hormuz closure threatens not just oil but also LNG, petrochemicals, and fertilizer supply chains.

What to Watch: Aramco's production data over the next two weeks. If Saudi Arabia ramps output while transit stays blocked, storage in the Gulf will max out fast -- creating a bizarre scenario where oil is simultaneously scarce globally and abundant regionally.

Source: CNN

4. Gas Prices Hit $3.48 and Could Set an All-Time Record by Month's End

The News: The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline reached $3.48 on Monday, according to AAA -- a 17% jump since the strikes on Iran began February 28. On prediction market Polymarket, there's now a 64% chance gas hits $4.50 by month's end and a 36% probability it reaches $5.00, which would approach the all-time record of $5.02 set in June 2022. Even with today's crude pullback, analysts say pump prices lag oil by 7-14 days.

Why It Matters: For consumers, $3.48 gas feels manageable. $4.50 changes behavior. $5.00 changes elections. The speed of this move -- 17% in 10 days -- is what makes it so disruptive, because household budgets don't adjust that fast. For investors, rising gas prices are a direct tax on consumer spending, and retail names with low-income customer bases (Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Walmart) will face margin pressure if the trend continues into spring driving season.

What to Watch: Wednesday's CPI report will be a tell. If February inflation already shows upward pressure before the oil shock fully hit, the market will start pricing in no Fed rate cuts this year -- and potentially a hike.

Source: NYT

5. Kohl's Posts a Surprise Earnings Beat -- But the Outlook Is Murky

The News: Kohl's delivered Q4 earnings per share that beat estimates by 25.3%, surprising a Wall Street that had largely written off the struggling department store chain. Revenue came in slightly below expectations at a -1.05% miss, but the bottom line was strong enough to send shares higher. The earnings come as Kohl's continues its turnaround effort under CEO Tom Kingsbury, with a focus on tighter inventory management and cost cuts.

Why It Matters: For investors, Kohl's is a bellwether for the mid-market retail consumer -- the shopper who isn't trading down to Walmart but isn't splurging at Nordstrom either. The fact that this consumer is still spending, even amid rising gas prices and economic anxiety, is a modestly encouraging signal. But the revenue miss suggests traffic is still weak, and the tariff overhang (remember Gap's 200bps warning from last week) could pressure margins in coming quarters.

What to Watch: Oracle reports after the bell tonight, giving investors a read on enterprise tech spending and cloud demand. If Oracle delivers, it could set the tone for the rest of earnings season -- and give the market something other than oil to talk about.

Source: Zacks

1. Iranian Drone Hits UAE's Largest Refinery -- ADNOC Shuts Ruwais Complex

The News: Abu Dhabi's state oil giant ADNOC shut its Ruwais refinery -- the largest in the region -- on Tuesday after a fire caused by an Iranian drone strike hit a facility within the complex. The attack, which came as Iran continued retaliatory strikes against Gulf nations, briefly reversed the morning's oil price decline and sent a shockwave through energy markets. Abu Dhabi authorities are responding to the fire, and the full extent of damage is still being assessed.

Why It Matters: This is the escalation scenario that kept energy traders up at night. Iran isn't just blocking the Strait of Hormuz -- it's directly attacking the refining infrastructure of U.S. allies. For investors, the Ruwais shutdown removes refined fuel supply (diesel, jet fuel, gasoline) from a region that exports heavily to Asia and Europe. For the broader conflict, hitting a UAE facility crosses a line that could draw more Gulf states into active military response.

What to Watch: Whether UAE retaliates directly or relies on the U.S.-Israeli coalition. If Abu Dhabi activates its own military response, the conflict widens significantly -- and the oil floor moves from $85 to $100+.

Source: Reuters

2. Pentagon Announces "Most Intense Day of Strikes" Inside Iran

The News: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced on Tuesday that the U.S. military is conducting "our most intense day of strikes inside Iran," escalating the 11-day-old conflict even as President Trump signals it may be winding down. Hegseth said the Pentagon is providing the president with "maximum options" and insisted the war will not be "endless." The intensification comes after Iran vowed it would not allow "one litre of oil" to leave the region while attacks continue.

Why It Matters: The gap between Trump's words ("very complete, pretty much") and the Pentagon's actions ("most intense day of strikes") is the single biggest source of market confusion right now. For investors, this disconnect means any trade based on a peace timeline is a coin flip. For geopolitical analysts, the escalation suggests the U.S. may be pursuing a "last push" strategy -- intensifying military pressure to force a faster resolution -- but that strategy only works if Iran capitulates. Tehran's foreign minister said ceasefire negotiations are "no longer an option."

What to Watch: Casualty reports. The Pentagon confirmed roughly 140 U.S. service members have been wounded overall. If that number spikes, domestic political pressure could shift the calculus on both sides.

Source: NPR

3. Asia Bounces Hard -- Kospi Surges 5% as Oil Drops and Peace Hopes Rise

The News: Asian markets staged a sharp recovery on Tuesday after Trump's comments sent oil prices tumbling overnight. South Korea's Kospi surged more than 5%, clawing back a chunk of Monday's brutal 8% decline. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped 1.66%, Australia's ASX 200 gained 1.35%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose over 1%. European markets also opened higher, with the Stoxx 600 climbing 2.2%, though oil and gas stocks lagged.

Why It Matters: The Kospi's 5% bounce after an 8% crash is a textbook relief rally -- big in percentage terms, but still leaving investors significantly underwater from pre-war levels. For global investors, the speed and magnitude of these swings make it nearly impossible to time. The more instructive signal is sector rotation: Asian healthcare and industrials led the recovery, while energy lagged, suggesting traders are betting on a return to normalcy rather than a prolonged war premium.

What to Watch: Whether Asian markets can hold these gains through the end of the week. If oil re-spikes on another escalation (like the Ruwais drone strike), Tuesday's bounce becomes just another bear market rally.

Source: CNBC

Q: Why don't nickels pay with cash?

A: They always get short changed.

A contractual clause that frees both parties from obligation when an extraordinary event beyond their control -- such as war, natural disaster, or government action -- prevents one or both from fulfilling the terms of an agreement.

"Shipping companies across the Gulf are invoking force majeure clauses on their contracts as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, leaving billions of dollars in cargo stranded."

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